Mid Tenn State Blue Raiders vs Minnesota Golden Gophers Point Spread Picks

This is the second straight road game for Middle Tennessee State. They are in a let-down spot after a 30-23 win at Syracuse as a +8 dog. The Blue Raiders opened the season at Vanderbilt of the SEC and got shut down in a 28-6 loss. Middle Tennessee is 5-12-1 ATS on fieldturf and QB Brent Stockstill injured his throwing shoulder last week, requiring an MRI. He is not 100% and may not play. Last year Stockstill broke his collarbone late in the season, forcing him to miss three games, and he had offseason surgery. He has taken a pounding already this season with 21 carries for 21 yards and six sacks. And this Middle Tennessee defense is a concern as they allowed 35 rushing touchdowns last season, tied for fifth worst in the nation. Minnesota acquired Coach P.J. Fleck in the offseason, who did an outstanding job at Western Michigan. Thus far the Gophers are unbeaten (2-0), off a 48-14 win at Oregon State as a dog. Minnesota is 15-7 ATS after allowing fewer than 170 yards passing in their previous game, plus 9-1 ATS after allowing 275 or less total yards in two straight contests. Coach Fleck is also 22-8 ATS after a victory, 14-4 ATS after outgaining an opponent by 125 total yards or more in all games he has coached with an average final score of 39.4 to 21.9. Lay the points and take Minnesota.

Taking a glance at this and seeing a Big-10 team playing a Sun Belt team with a field goal to beat the number makes it look very appealing. Hold on! Rick Stockstill has won 20 of his 29 conference games since roaming the sidelines for the Blue Raiders and this is a loaded offense that finished No. 7 in the country last year, winning 10 games for the first time. They were 5-1 at home (while Minnesota went 2-4 on the road). The MTSU line returns four. They are without their QB but the line reflects that (the line has shifted by a touchdown). This team won on the road in ACC country last year which is never easy. Tim Brewster has struggled to get things going in Minnesota where his teams are a horrible 14-24. They return just two starters on defense, with an entirely new defensive line. They are facing a high-octane, experienced offense on the road. This is simply not a good spot for Minnesota and I like Middle Tenn to spring the mild upset.