Michigan Wolverines vs Wisconsin Badgers Point Spread Picks

The Wisconsin Badgers won 10 or more games over an 11 year period eight times ending after the 2019 season. The last five years (not counting the Covid season), they have not won 10 games or more in any of them. The Badgers are 2-2 on the season and the staple running game has not clicked as they are averaging just 3.3 YPC. While the running game is soft, the passing game has been very good generating 7.4 YPA. Wisconisn did lose the two games vs. Alabama and Maryland. Michigan is 3-1 but haven't exactly faced a strong schedule. They lost to Oklahoma by 11, just squeaked out a three-point win vs. Nebraska, and managed just a 17 point win vs. New Mexico. The Badgers are not going to be a 10 win team, but I don't think Michigan wins 10+ either. Wisconsin is closer than the line indicates here. I like Wisconsin.

The Wisconsin Badgers have been their own worst enemy this season. The Badgers have coughed the ball up 9 times already, including 5 times last week against Notre Dame in a 41-13 loss. They also turned the ball over three times against Penn State in their opener in a 16-10 loss. Michigan is off to a 4-0 start and the team has dominated both sides of the line of scrimmage. The Wolverines are averaging 40 points per game while allowing just 12. Michigan looks to be among the elite this year and has shown no weaknesses through four games. Wisconsin has already suffered a lot of injuries this season and Michigan is going to test their depth. Ball security issues vs a strong defense could very well come into play here again for Wisconsin, but either way Michigan has the edge on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Make the play on Michigan.

You don't see a ton of totals in the low 40s in college football. There is a sound reason for this one, however. The Wisconsin Badgers are known for two things: they love to run the football and they are always a very good defensive team. The Badgers have not allowed a point in two games, and are 90-12 SU at home since 2004. Over that span, the Badgers have allowed opponents just 15.1 ppg. Michigan sure can answer the bell defensively as they allow just three yards per carry against them and just 134.5 yards in the air. This is going to be a game of field position and field goals. Back the UNDER.

A pair of physical Big 10 teams in the trenches clash at the Big House. Wisconsin is #12 in the nation in points allowed (16.4 points per game). Wisconsin is off a big offensive game against Nebraska, but is 12-5-1 UNDER the total after scoring 40+ points in their previous game. Michigan has a powerhouse defense, tops in the country allowing opponents 230.5 total yards per contest. They allow just 96.5 yards rushing per game, sixth best in college football. The Wolverines are 7-3-1 UNDER the total following a spread cover. These teams played a 24-10 game a year ago as Michigan got just 234 total yards and the Badgers had 325. The teams combined to go 10-of-32 on third down. Two years ago on this same field it was a 14-7 final, and this shapes up as another defensive slugfest. Back the UNDER.