Michigan Wolverines vs Washington Huskies Point Spread Picks

Both of these teams had higher hopes for this season than they currently have. Washington is 5-1 on the season, and Michigan is 4-2, but neither enters this game in the top 25. I think the winner of this game will vastly lift their playoff chances. Washington and Michigan are a dead heat on defense, while Washington holds a slight edge offensively. Michigan has struggled to score against the better defenses it has faced. They scored just 13 points against Oklahoma and 13 against USC as well. The oddsmakers are giving too much on the line because this game will be played in the Big House. The padding of the lines is quite overdone when Michigan is home, but over their last 17 home games, they are 6-11 ATS. Washington fits the profile of a team with certain statistical advantages, having hit 56% in 250 games played. Make the play on Washington. 

Washington has a great offense but defense wins a lot of championships. The Huskies are 88th in the country defensively in yards given up (404.1 per game), 73rd on third down (39.90%), and 49th in points allowed (24.1 per game). They've beaten six Top 20 teams, though many were close and they allowed 30.8 points per game versus those Top 20 teams. Washington beat Oregon by three, Utah by seven, Oregon State by two, Oregon by three, and Texas by six. Washington is 8-19 ATS away from home against defenses that allow 4.5 or fewer yards per play. Michigan has played four Top 16 teams, beating No. 15 Penn State (24-15), No. 16 Iowa (26-0), No. 2 Ohio State (30-24), and No. 4 Alabama (27-20). The defense is No. 1 in the country in yards allowed, 10th on third down (30.22%), and tops in points allowed (10.2 per game). Michigan is on a 27-14 spread run, including 15-5 ATS away from home after a victory. Play Michigan. 

Washington went UNDER by 33 points while losing to Montana, 13-7, and Dylan Morris went only 27 of 46 for 226 yards with 3 interceptions and no touchdown passes. Richard Newton was the leading rusher with only 62 yards, and Cade Otton caught eight passes for 82 yards. That was all the Husky offense could accomplish against the FCS Grizzlies, and it won't get any easier against Michigan, which comes off a 47-14 win over Western Michigan. The Wolverines have a new defensive coordinator in Mike MacDonald, a former Baltimore Ravens linebacker coach, and they held the Broncos to 317 total yards. Washington has gone UNDER seven of its past nine games, and it is 8-0 UNDER after giving up fewer than 20 points its previous game. Also, the Huskies are 9-1 UNDER their past 10 as road underdogs and 10-2 UNDER in September games. Michigan has also stayed UNDER five of seven after scoring at least 40 points its previous game. Go with the UNDER for a Max Play.