Michigan Wolverines vs Purdue Boilermakers Point Spread Picks

Combine the Buckeyes (-1085), the Broncos (-875), and the Wolverines (-1455) into a 3-team parlay at -333 odds.

What Michigan is doing is scary. What is scarier still is they are ranked #3 in the latest playoff rankings. This is a team through eight games that has not allowed any team to score more than 10 points. They've allowed just 47 points, fewer than six points per game, and 17 of those points were scored in fourth quarter garbage time. They don't turn the ball over as they have a 10-0 turnover advantage in their last five games, and an offense that averages over 40 PPG and has scored 30 or more in every game. This team is going to play this one with a chip on its shoulder being ranked #3. What could they do any better than they have through eight games? No mercy in this one. Make the play on Michigan.

Point spread aside, this is a bad matchup all-around for Purdue. The Boilermakers' ground game averages just 3.8 yards per carry and runs into a Michigan defensive front that is No. 1 in college football at stuffing the run allowing 84.8 yards rushing per contest. Purdue QB Aidan O'Connell has 11 TDs and 8 interceptions away from home this season. Purdue got shut down by the Iowa defense at home, a 24-3 loss, and lost at Wisconsin, 35-24, turning it over 3 times while allowing 178 rushing yards. Purdue's defense is one of the weakest in the nation at preventing big passing plays. Michigan has a veteran offensive line and great balance with RBs Blake Corum (1,463 yards, 5.9 ypc) and Donovan Edwards (687 yards, 7.5 ypc), plus QB J.J. McCarthy (17 TDs, 2 INTs). The Wolverine's defense is second in the country in yards allowed and points (12.7 ppg). Michigan is on an 18-8 spread run, as well as 17-6 ATS in games played on turf - that included a 42-3 rout of Iowa on this field in last year's Big 10 title game. Play Michigan. 

Michigan came into the season having lost 17 starters and has been overvalued at 1-2 ATS. Overvalued on offense, anyway, as quarterback Wilton Speight is one of the few returning starters on an offense that has scored just one touchdown in 10 trips inside the 20-yard line. Wide receiver Tarik Black is out indefinitely with a broken foot. Michigan is 3-9 ATS on natural grass and 27-47 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Purdue came into the season with a pretty decent QB in David Blough and a talented up and coming new coach in Jeff Brohm. The Boilermakers have won back-to-back games for the first time since 2012 following a 35-3 victory at Missouri. QB Blough has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 15 straight games. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with six or more total starters returning than their opponent are 60-26 ATS in the first month of the season. And the home team is 9-3-1 ATS between these Big 10 foes. Play Purdue.