Michigan State Spartans vs Washington Huskies Point Spread Picks

Washington went 11-2 last year and returns the bulk of its talent. They've looked as good as expected behind QB Michael Penix Jr (8 TDs, 1 INT) in wins over Boise State (56-19) and Tulsa (43-10). College football favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like Washington with an experienced QB returning after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in back-to-back contests are 44-14 ATS against an opponent with an inexperienced quarterback. Michigan State QB Payton Thorne transferred to Auburn, so they've been starting QB Noah Kim, who threw 19 passes in 2022. This is their first real test after opening against Central Michigan and Richmond and the Spartans are 2-12 ATS versus the Pac 12. Washington topped Michigan State a year ago, 39-28, rolling up 503 total yards while leading 29-8 at the half. Play Washington. 

The winner of this game will be 3-0 and feel good about itself. Both of these teams have gotten to 2-0 by playing an early soft schedule. We turn to the past which shows that Washington has been a defense-first team for the last seven years allowing 19.4ppg or fewer in five of those years. Michigan St has just five starters returning on offense but nine on defense. The Spartans have allowed 13 points through two games. Michigan St. is a defense-first team as well. The Spartans have allowed an average of 20 PPG in their last five seasons, and have just about everyone back from a year ago. This game looks like a 40's type game, maxing out at 50. I like the UNDER in this one.