Michigan State Spartans vs Toledo Rockets Point Spread Picks

Toledo's defense was one of the best in the country a year ago, holding opponents to right around 12 points a game, and while Mike Jacobs takes over the program after Jason Candle's departure, a number that strong doesn't evaporate overnight, even with new coaching installing its own scheme. Michigan State enters this one in complete rebuild mode after firing Jonathan Smith last November and turning to Pat Fitzgerald, and the offense that unit inherits managed under 25 points a game in a 4-8 season that got the previous staff fired in the first place. Two new head coaches in their true season openers is its own kind of caution flag. New staff tends to play things tight in Week 1 while installing systems live, and that shows up as stalled drives and cautious play-calling rather than fireworks. Toledo's own offense was productive last year, but this total rests less on what the Rockets can do and more on whether Michigan State's stagnant attack can find any rhythm against a defense this well established, and last year's numbers say it can't. Take the UNDER tonight.