Michigan State Spartans vs Oregon Ducks Point Spread Picks

Michigan State has a winning record with the defense keeping them in games allowing 19 points per game. The offense is weak with two quarterbacks combined for five TDs and eight interceptions. Michigan State is on a 20-13 run UNDER the total, including 4-1 UNDER away from home. Unbeaten Oregon's defense is allowing 18.75 points per contest, including 13.5 at home. Oregon is on a 15-8 run UNDER and this total is too high. Play Michigan State/Oregon UNDER the total. 

This is a heavyweight early season matchup with the Oregon Ducks coming into Big-10 country in a rematch vs. the Spartans. Last year, as expected, the points were hitting the scoreboard fast and furiously. However, the Ducks have to replace their best QB in history with one without big game experience, and going to Sparty against what will be a focused and strong defense, I'm not so sure the points are going to come nearly as easily. Michigan State has allowed just 19.3 points per game in their history here, and they have allowed less than 23 points here to 19 of their last 22 opponents, with just one making it over 28. This total is predicated on Marcus Mariotta throwing against this Sparty defense, and that is far from the case. The Spartans are also playing with revenge for this one, and the defense will be carrying the mail as usual. Play on the UNDER.

What appears to be a very interesting early season out-of-conference game, I think will turn out otherwise. Michigan State had a limited offense last season, but the defense was so good that they often had short fields to work with, and did not have to score a whole lot of points. We are going to find out a lot here early, as both of these teams feel that they have enough to make the final four. Michigan State is going to do fairly well, but I just don't see the defense dominating the way it did last season, as it has lost some key pieces. Michigan State also benefitted from a pretty soft road schedule last season, and this by far will be their biggest road challenge and it comes early - and they better bring their track shoes. Marcus Mariotta already put 3 TD passes on his Heisman Trophy resume in the opener as the Ducks put up 62 points. The toughest venue the Spartans played in on the road last season was at Notre Dame, which resulted in their only loss, and I don't think this team is good enough defensively to keep Mariotta and company out of the end-zone enough to get the cover. The Ducks are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 after rushing for 200+, and have what it takes to win this one. Make the play on Oregon.