Michigan State Spartans vs Minnesota Golden Gophers Point Spread Picks

Michigan State has a good quarterback in junior Aidan Chiles (10 TDs, 3 INTs). The Spartans are looking for their first Big Ten win, covering last week in a 31-20 loss to No. 25 Michigan as a +13.5 dog. Michigan State is on a 4-1 ATS run, plus 7-2 ATS on the road. Minnesota's ground game is averaging 3.6 yards per carry, while three quarterbacks have combined for 11 TDs and seven interceptions, with redshirt freshman Drake Lindsey the current starter. The Gophers come off a 41-3 loss to Iowa, with Lindsey throwing three picks, part of a 2-6 ATS run. Play Michigan State.

Minnesota got a huge win last week when they went to Iowa and beat the Hawkeyes at their own game. They won with defense 12-10. They held Iowa to 127 total yards and turned them over 3 times. Michigan St. is 2-5 on the season. This is a poor Spartan team, and the only FBS team they have beaten is Central Michigan, and since beating Richmond at home in Game 2, it has been five-straight losses by Michigan St. The Spartans are coming off a 49-0 pasting by in-state rival Michigan. That was the worst shutout loss by the Spartans in well over 30 years. Minnesota has had a lot of close games. They lost to Northwestern as a double-digit favorite. They beat LA Lafayette by just 11 at home and own a win over Nebraska by 3 and Iowa by 2. This team seems to be down to the wire every week, and I think Michigan St. after getting blown out so badly last week, will come back hard this week. Make the play on Michigan St.

Michigan State is taking a big step back after its 11-2 season in 2021 when it relied heavily on Kenneth Walker III in the backfield to offset a defense that was especially bad in the secondary. The Spartans lost 39-28 at Washington on Saturday in their first big test of the season and the game wasn't as close as the socre indicates. Payton Thorne did his part completing 30 of 42 passes for 323 yards and three TDs with an interception, but the Spartans had no answer for Washington QB Michael Penix Jr., who shredded the Spartan defense for 397 yards passing and four touchdowns. Meanwhile, Minnesota was thrashing Colorado 49-7 for its sixth consecutive win dating to last season and the Golden Gophers have allowed only 17 points in three games this year. The Gophers were led by Mahamed Ibrahim, who totaled 202 rushing yards on 8.8 yards per carry and the running game figures to consume a lot of time in this matchup. The UNDER is 9-3 in Minnesota's past 12 games after it scored at least 40 points its previous game and the Gophers are 9-4 UNDER following a victory. Michigan State has stayed UNDER four of its last five September games and it scored 14 of its points last week in garbage time.  The Gophers are 13-3-1 ATS their past 17 road games and 18-7-1 ATS their past 26 conference games. Dual Max Plays on this game - Take Minnesota to cover (Max), & the UNDER (Max)