Michigan State Spartans vs Michigan Wolverines Point Spread Picks

This is a big rivalry game, and the Spartans are this year's hosts. Michigan St. is just 3-4 on the season. Michigan is 5-2, but is strong on both offense and defense. They average 6.7 yards per play while holding opponents to 4.7. Michigan St. can and will be exposed for their inability to defend the pass. The Spartans are allowing 8.2 yards per pass attempt. When the Spartans have the ball, they will not be able to run it, which means many defenders will be off the line of scrimmage, breaking into coverage. Michigan is not going to be beaten by a mediocre, one-dimensional offense. Michigan has a +9 in turnover rating. The Spartans have given up 38 or more points in their four conference games. Won't get it done here. Make the play on Michigan. 

Michigan State has averaged 17 points over the last four games. Throw in a 16-10 opening day win over Florida Atlantic as a 13-point favorite, and it hasn't been a potent offense led by sophomore QB Aidan Chiles (6 TDs, 9 INTs). The Spartans have scored seven points in their last two meetings against the Wolverines. Michigan State is on a 13-7 run UNDER the total. Michigan's defense is 24th in the country in yards allowed allowing 22.1 points per contest. They've lost two in a row with the offense scoring a total of 24 points. Their three quarterbacks have combined for six TDs and nine picks, so look for a battle of punts and field goals. Take Michigan State/Michigan UNDER the total. 

No. 2 Michigan has a potent offense behind QB J.J. McCarthy (14 TDs, 3 INTs) and RB Blake Corum (546 yards, 5.7 ypc). The defense is tops in the country in points allowed (6.7 per game), second in yards allowed (233.1 per game), and 15th on third down (31.46%). Michigan is on a 17-6 spread run in Big 10 play and 30-16 ATS after outgaining three straight opponents by 100+ total yards. Michigan State is a mess. Head coach Mel Tucker was fired and they've lost four in a row under interim coach Harlon Barnett. The Spartans have turned to freshman QB Katin Houser, with their two signal callers combining for 8 TDs and 7 picks. They come in shell-shocked after blowing an 18-point fourth-quarter lead to Rutgers in a 27-24 defeat. Michigan State is 44-68 ATS off a Big 10 loss and 5-15 ATS at home versus defenses that allow 285 yards or fewer per game. Play Michigan. 

Michigan State had lost four in a row before upsetting Wisconsin in double overtime 34-28 on Oct. 15 and then getting a bye week. The Spartans still miss their former starting running back, Kenneth Walker III, who they lost to the NFL Draft and their secondary isn't much better than last year allowing 269.0 yards per game and is #111 in the country. J.J. McCarthy went 17 of 24 for 145 yards against Penn State, but Michigan's running game was unstoppable with Donovan Edwards rushing for 173 yards on 16 carries and Blake Corum added 166 yards on 28 carries. The Wolverines totaled 563 yards of offense, including 418 on the ground. That doesn't bode well for the Spartans, who have allowed 422.3 total yards per game. This is a huge revenge game for the Wolverines as they lost 37-33 in a thrilling contest last year and they lost a close 27-24 decision in 2020. Michigan State has not covered its past four road games and Michigan is 12-4 ATS its past 16 October games and the Wolverines have covered seven of nine conference games. Lay the points with Michigan - Max Play.