Miami Florida Hurricanes vs Virginia Cavaliers Point Spread Picks

Virginia stunned North Carolina 31-27 as a 24-point underdog as Mike Hollins ran for three TDs and Malik Washington had a go-ahead 14-yard scoring reception in the fourth quarter for the Cavaliers, who enjoyed their first road win over a top-10 opponent in their history. Tony Muskett threw for 208 yards and a TD and the Cavaliers totaled 228 rushing yards. They have won two in a row following close losses against N.C. State and Boston College and the Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS their past four games. Miami pulled out a 28-20 victory over Clemson after the Hurricanes had two weeks to think about how they inexplicably blew the game against Georgia Tech when they could have run out the clock. Miami has played a weak schedule with Texas A&M the only other quality win and the Hurricanes are 5-13 ATS their past 18 games and 2-9 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games. Take the points with Virginia as a Max Play. 

Miami's offense has struggled all year and now QB Tyler Van Dyke (shoulder injury) is unlikely to play so they'll have to turn to redshirt freshman Jake Garcia (2 TDs, 3 INTs). Miami is averaging 3.7 yards per rush and is No. 94 in the country in points scored (22.5 pg). Miami is on a 22-8-2 run UNDER the total on the road, plus 33-16 UNDER against losing teams. Virginia has one of the worst offenses in the nation, ranked No. 124 in points scored (14.8 pg) and leads the nation with 19 turnovers behind QB Brennan Armstrong (6 TDs, 9 INTs). The defense keeps them in games, ranked No. 32 in total yards allowed. Virginia is 43-24 UNDER the total after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. And the UNDER has cashed in six of the last seven meetings between these ACC rivals on this field, including a 19-14 game two years ago. Play Miami Florida/Virginia UNDER the total. 

Four of the last five meetings between these two teams have gone UNDER, including Virginia's 16-13 win in 2018 that went UNDER by 17.5 points. Virginia is 7-2 UNDER over its last nine October games and Miami is 8-3-1 UNDER in its last 12 games overall and 13-5-1 UNDER its last 19 conference games. Virginia is #12 in yards allowed while allowing 21.4 points per game and the Hurricanes give up 21.2 and are seventh in rushing yards allowed. The Cavaliers ran the ball 29 times against Notre Dame and incredibly gained a net four yards and were 4-for-14 in third down efficiency.  Bryce Perkins did throw for 334 yards, but he was picked off twice and he has now thrown six interceptions this season compared to eight touchdown passes. Miami is averaging only 24.2 points versus FBS teams and it comes off a loss to Virginia Tech as a 14-point favorite. The Hurricanes lost a fumble and threw four interceptions against the Hokies. Look for this matchup to stay UNDER the total.