Miami Florida Hurricanes vs Texas A&M Aggies Point Spread Picks

Miami fought back from two losses in midseason to win its final four games and squeak into the College Football Playoff ahead of Notre Dame. The Hurricanes won those four games by a combined score of 151-41, giving them tremendous momentum heading into this game. Miami finished the regular season with a 38-7 romp over Pittsburgh, holding the Panthers to 30 yards rushing on 21 carries. The Hurricanes are #6 in the country, allowing just 13.8 points per game, and #7 in rushing yards allowed (86.8 per game). Texas A&M is 4-11 ATS in its past 15 games as a favorite and 5-12 ATS in its past 17 games overall. The Aggies come off their only loss of the season, 27-17 to Texas, and they ended the regular season on a 0-3 ATS run, including a come-from-behind 31-30 victory over South Carolina as a 16.5-point favorite. Miami is 5-2 ATS after allowing fewer than 20 points in its previous game. Texas A&M is 1-10 ATS in its past 11 non-conference games and 5-21 ATS following a week off. Miami QB Carson Beck has thrown for 3,072 yards and 25 TDs with 10 interceptions this season. Take Miami Florida.

Expectations are high for each of these teams in 2023. They combine to bring back 39 of 42 starters from a year ago, so they are both very experienced teams. They each dominated weak teams in their opener so we are going to find a lot out about these teams Saturday afternoon. Miami has a strong fan base, and they are a very difficult team to play taking them on the road. The Hurricanes are 167-49 SU at home in their last 216. They have also won 10 of their last 24 home games outright. There have been five other games where they lost by seven or fewer points. It certainly says that Miami is going to at least be in this game, if not win it. Make the play on Miami.

In the first road test for the Aggies, we like their chances against a Miami team that struggled mightily in their first game vs. a Big 12 opponent. The Hurricanes lost 13-51 to Oklahoma in week two. That game was sandwiched between two cupcakes in Marshall and Florida International. Last week they beat Florida International 23-9 but underperformed as a 33 point favorite. So, can Miami play against good teams? They haven't proven it yet. Texas A&M returned 9 starters on offense and ranks third in the nation in rushing (296 yards per game). They are averaging over twice as many points per game this season than Miami. This offense, combined with Miami's struggling offense, will spell doom for the Hurricanes. After losing last game ATS, Miami is now riding a very poor 11-21 ATS streak at home. They just aren't the same Miami team. They are just 1-7 in their last eight vs. ranked opponents! This is a huge game for the Aggies who have had this one circled since the schedule came out. It's their first chance to start 4-0 in over 60 years! "Aggies defensive back Devin Gregg said this week, "Coach said it best. It can be exposure, or we can be exposed." We think A&M comes to play tonight. While piling up points early is commonplace for A&M, it doesn't necessarily continue as the competition stiffens. Last year they torched LA-Lafayette for 51 and Louisiana Tech for 45. And while we think they score enough here to get it done, points in this game for both squads will be at a premium. That same Aggies team last year when playing the Top 25 teams scored 25, 18, 12 and 10. This Miami  team is not a Top 25 team, but it certainly is stout on defense, especially playing in front of the home crowd. What keeps this team out of the Top 25 is the offense, which averaged just 19.6 points per game last year. That was was their lowest output since 1979 and this year there's no reason to believe they'll be much better. The defense is another story. There have been some good Miami teams in the past decade, but none better against the run than last years 11. They gave up just 67.8 yards per game. There simply has not been a better defensive football team over the last eight seasons than Miami. They have allowed fewer touchdowns than any other team in the country. There have been some big offensive teams come to South Florida, and not generate much offense. The Hurricanes have now gone 18 straight games without the opponent getting more than 17 points on their turf (Clemson got 24 in an OT game), and 26 of the last 27 have failed to post over 20. In what should be a low-scoring tight affair, we like Texas A&M and the UNDER.