Miami Florida Hurricanes vs Pittsburgh Panthers Point Spread Picks

Miami is ranked 13th in the latest AP Top 25 poll. Pittsburgh is ranked 24th. Sometimes the polls don't reflect an accurate point spread when Top 25 teams meet, as they do here. But this one is entirely accurate. The Panthers have been good this season. However, they are not in Miami's class. The Hurricanes hold edges on both sides of the ball, especially in the trenches. They are worth backing here based on that. Miami quarterback Carson Beck is a drop-back passer. He has a 77 percent completion rate when he has a clean pocket. That's the 11th best in the nation. Pittsburgh rates 44th in quarterback pressure and 103rd in pass defense. Miami's offensive line is one of the best in the country, ranking fourth in giving up the fewest quarterback pressures. The Hurricanes surrender the seventh-fewest points in the nation at 15.9 a game and rank 14th in fewest yards allowed per game. This is the toughest defense Pittsburgh has faced all season. Take the Hurricanes. 

Pittsburgh has been impressive, heading to a bowl while winning three in a row along with six of nine. RB Israel Abanikanda (1,320 yards, 5.9 ypc) powers the offense while the defense is 16th in yards allowed and 15th on third down (31%). Pitt took Tennessee to overtime in September and shut down No. 19 Syracuse, 19-9, three weeks ago. Pitt is on a 26-15 ATS run on the road, including 15-3 ATS as road chalk. Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke (shoulder) is questionable after missing two straight. Miami QBs have been sacked 30 times, and the ground game averages 3.7 yards per rush, so freshman QB Jake Garcia (3 TDs, 4 INTs) may have to start. He started last week, a 40-10 loss to Clemson. The Hurricane's defense is 93rd in the nation on third down (42%). Miami is on a 2-9 spread run and has lost four in a row at home to Florida State (45-3), Duke (45-21), North Carolina (27-24), and Middle Tennessee (45-31). Play Pittsburgh.

Miami pulled out a 31-30 win over N.C. State last week, but the Hurricanes still are only 3-4, and Pittsburgh is riding high after a huge win over Clemson for the Panthers' sixth win in seven games. Pitt is averaging 523.6 yards and 45.3 points, and much of that is due to quarterback Kenny Pickett, who threw for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Tigers. He has totaled 2,236 passing yards this season with 23 TDs and just 1 interception with a completion rate of 68.9%. Manny Diaz is in his third year as coach at Miami, but he hasn't been able to build a good defense as the Hurricanes allowed 27 points per game last season, including losing 62-26 to North Carolina and 37-34 to Oklahoma State in their final two games. They have allowed an average of 35 points versus FBS teams this year. Miami is 7-14 ATS its past 21 October games, and Pitt is 9-2-1 ATS after allowing fewer than 20 points its previous game. Play Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh is playing well at 3-2, with a pair of one-point defeats along with a 23-20 win over No. 24 Louisville. Pitt QB Kenny Pickett (8 TDs, 3 INTs) leads the nation with 1,389 passing yards, while the defense is sixth in the country in total yards allowed (263.4 per game), second at stuffing the run (just 52 yards rushing per game allowed). The Panthers are on a 7-3 ATS run on the road, are 10-4 ATS following a defeat, plus 8-3-2 ATS away against a team with a winning home record. Miami also topped Louisville in a close one, though they allowed 34 points and 516 yards. The defense is a weak spot allowing 420.3 total yards per game to rank #47 out of 76 active FBS teams. Miami won 16-12 last season. With the road team 7-3 ATS when these rivals clash, look for another close one. Play Pittsburgh.