Massachusetts Minutemen vs Penn State Nittany Lions Point Spread Picks

It is asking a lot for Penn State to cover such a huge number in a non-conference game in the middle of the Big Ten season especially with Ohio State on deck. The Nittany Lions are 1-5 ATS their past six home games versus teams with losing road records and they are 2-8 ATS after playing Northwestern. Also, Penn State has not covered its past four games playing after a bye week against a .666 or less opponent. Massachusetts is having its usual losing season, but the Minutemen do have a win over New Mexico State in the season opener and they took New Mexico to overtime before losing 34-31. UMass also got the money last week covering as a 19.5-point underdog against Toledo. The UNDER is 8-0 in Penn State's past eight home games versus teams with losing road records and it allows just 9.6 points per game. Take the big points with Massachusetts and the UNDER.

The UMass Minutemen have finally found some scoring punch, but let's not be fooled here. Colorado and Vanderbilt simply are not good teams this season, especially on the defensive end. Colorado has given up 30 points or more in 10 of their last 13 games, including all three this season. And the 31 that UMass hung on Vandy was the lowest amount of points the Commodores have allowed in three games this season. Penn State is on an entirely different level than those two teams on the dfensive end. Just turn the page back to at least a legitimate defensive team in Boston College at home, and the Minutemenn scored seven. I think that they will struggle to get more than 7 here, if they can even get there. Penn State has allowed 37 points in three games to what I consider on average, better offenses than UMass. The Minutemen are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. a winning team, and Penn State is at the opposite end vs. a losing team at 6-1 ATS. Lay the points and play on Penn State.