Massachusetts Minutemen vs Miami Ohio RedHawks Point Spread Picks

Miami of Ohio plays its second straight road game after getting smacked around at Miami of the ACC, a 38-3 loss. The receiving corps is thin and the offense mustered just 215 total yards going 2-of-15 on third and fourth down. Massachusetts already has two games under its belt, including a 41-30 win at New Mexico State as a +7 dog. This is the home opener for UMass. The offense is much-improved with new QB Taisun Phommachanh, a former Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket and Clemson recruit. The ground game is averaging 5.3 yards per carry with four starters returning. College football underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that surrendered 31+ points per contest in the previous season are 33-10 ATS after playing a game where 70 or more total points or were scored. Play Massachusetts. 

Miami, Ohio and UMass square off in Amherst, and it has not been a very exciting season for either team as they both enter with a total of two wins on the season. While both teams have shown the ability to move the ball at times, the end-zone has been very elusive. Looking at the stats certainly shows why. The Miami, Ohio Red Hawks are generating just a point for every 19.4 yards gained, and UMass is not far behind with a point every 18.4 yards generated. Those numbers are some of the worst in the FBS this season. I expect a pair of average to below average offenses to move the ball, but failing to produce will allow for a quick and low-scoring game. Miami, Ohio is now 20-8 to the UNDER in their last 28 vs. a losing team, while UMass is 4-0 to the UNDER in their last four vs. a losing team. The UNDER gets the call in this one.

This is a tough sell to me. To have a team like UMass that has a grand total of one win since joining the ranks of the FBS, posted as a favorite seems off to me. That rings especially true when you consider their lone win was last year against a team that has not recorded a win vs. a FBS opponent since November 26th in 2010. UMass has scored 35 points in five games this season, and just 21 points in their four games vs. FBS opponents or 5.3 points per game. Miami Ohio. is also 0-5 coming into this game. The difference is that they have faced three teams from BCS Conferences, and a fourth that is 3-2, and ranks highly defensively on a national scale. UMass may not score enough to cover here, and the Red Hawks have more of upside by having played a much tougher schedule to this point. If you are going to give me more than a field goal against Massachusetts, I'm biting. Take Miami Ohio.