Maryland Terrapins vs Wisconsin Badgers Point Spread Picks

The Maryland Terps have a tough challenge this week as they will play at Wisconsin. This might be a tough spot for Wisconsin, as they just played Alabama, and Michigan is next. The Tide destroyed the Badgers last week, winning 38-14. There have to be some doubters amongst the players after a non-competitive loss. Maryland is off to an expected 3-0 start as they have faced a lower level of competition, but they won all of them the way they should have, now a real test against Wisconsin. This game fits a huge long-term situation that plays on conference road dogs with low totals. This situation is 549-426-29 ATS connecting on 56% of over 1000 games. Make the play on Maryland. 

Maryland is 6-2 on the season and has been a very strong offensive team. A closer look shows that since conference play started those numbers are still good but not what they did prior to conference play. The Terps averaged over 40 PPG in their three games outside the conference but just 30.4 PPG in the conference. That is a 10-point swing. Wisconsin is generating just -0.3 yards per play on offense worse than Maryland, so factoring in the early season success the Maryland offense had, the numbers are very similar. Maryland has also not faced a strong running game, and the Badgers are generating 4.7 yards a carry, while the average of the Maryland opponents has averaged just 3.9. I think that is the biggest edge in this game. Make the play on Wisconsin.

The Maryland Terrapins have found some success in the Big-10, but they were beat up pretty badly at Ohio State. They have another tough venue to try and find a win in playing in Wisconsin this week. They have simply gotten beaten defensively by good offenses as the Buckeyes hit them for 52 points, and West Virginia put up 40. Wisconsin had a tough day vs. Northwestern, but against teams that do not defend well they have taken care of business. Wisconsin could go off here against Maryland especially with Melvin Gordon in the backfield. Gordon has eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark already, at just shy of eight yards per carry and that will keep the Maryland offense off the field, and shortens the game, so I think we will see very heavy doses of Gordon in this one. The Badgers' uncharacteristically allowed 28 points to Illinois last week at home, so they will be chomping at the bit for this one as they have allowed just 125 points in their last 11 home games at 11.4 points per game. That should put a lot of pressure on the total, which seems to be adjusted up after Illinois hit them for 28. I don't expect a repeat, so make the play on Wisconsin and the UNDER.