Maryland Terrapins vs Michigan State Spartans Point Spread Picks

Maryland isn't that far from sitting at 7-4, with close losses to Washington (24-20), Nebraska (34-31), and UCLA (20-17). QB Malik Washington (14 TDs, 8 INTs) has only been sacked six times. Michigan State is 0-8 in the Big Ten. The rushing offense averages 3.7 yards per carry, while their two quarterbacks have been sacked 37 times. The defense is 98th in the nation in points given up (30.7 per game). This one will be played at Ford Field in Michigan, and the Spartans haven't played well in front of their home fans, losing their last three home games by 18, 11, and 25 points. Play Maryland. 

Combine the Terrapins (-360) and the Mean Green (-1299) into a 2-team parlay at -266 odds.

Maryland still seems to be searching for something. They found themselves down by 14 points in the first half in each of their last two games. Maryland is also searching for its first win at Michigan St. They have squared off four times here with the Spartans coming away with the win each time. Maryland is 3-0 but the Terps trailed by 14 points in two of three games, and their strength of schedule to date is near the bottom of the country. Michigan St. was hammered in their last game at Washington, and I expect a different team to show up this week. Michigan St. is tough to play at home, and they own a 25-10-1 ATS mark as a home dog from 3.5 to 13.5. I like Michigan St. to be in this one to the end. Make the play on the Spartans. 

Maryland was 3-0 after beating up on Buffalo, Charlotte and SMU, but the Terrapins lost their first Big Ten game 34-27 to Michigan last week and QB Taulia Tagovailoa threw for 207 yards and a touchdown with two interceptions for Maryland, which yielded 243 yards on the ground to the Wolverines. Michigan State obviously misses star running back Kenneth Walker III, who went to the NFL and the Spartans have lost their past two games after defeating Western Michigan and Akron. Michigan State has won the last four meetings, including 40-21 in 2021 and six of the last seven meetings have gone UNDER. QB Payton Thorne finished 17 of 24 for 132 yards and no TDs against Minnesota on Saturday and obviously will have to improve on those stats and the much-maligned Spartan defense also needs to step up. However, Michigan State is 8-1-2 ATS its past 11 games after giving up at least 450 total yards its previous game and 9-3-1 ATS after losing by at least 20 points. The Terrapins have covered just one of their past six home games and they are 8-20 ATS their past 28 conference games. Also, the Spartans are 11-5 UNDER after scoring fewer than 20 points their previous game and Maryland is 9-4 UNDER after allowing 450 yards its previous game. This is a tough scheduling spot for Maryland after a tough loss at Michigan. Three plays on this game: Take Michigan State ATS and on the moneyline, and take the UNDER.

It's tough for most college football teams to bounce back this late in the season after their first loss. Michigan State saw their magical unbeaten campaign blow up last week in a 40-29 loss at Purdue. It was 21-21 in the third before everything unraveled. The defense has allowed 73 points the last two games, surrendering 552 yards to Michigan and 594 yards to the Boilermakers. Maryland is a big dog, but it has a winning record and is alive for a bowl behind junior QB Taulia Tagovailoa (18 TDs, 9 INTs). College football teams like Maryland with a winning percentage between 51-60% that are coming off of a home loss by 14+ points are 43-15 ATS against winning teams. Play Maryland.