Louisville Cardinals vs South Florida Bulls Point Spread Picks

South Florida almost pulled out a victory against heavily-favored Florida and the Bulls racked up 286 rushing yards while losing 31-28 last week. Brian Battie ran for 150 yards and a touchdown and QB Gerry Bohanon added 102 yards on the ground with a TD. The Bulls defense also kept Gator QB Anthony Richardson in check for most of the game and it held the Gators to just 112 yards passing. USF coach Jeff Scott had a rough first two years, but this team has 19 returning starters and expects to get to a bowl game with the addition of Bohanon. Louisville is 1-2 after losing 35-31 to Florida State even while outgaining the Seminoles 495-455. Malik Cunningham rushed for 127 yards and two TDs and he threw for 243 yards and a TD with an interception. Louisville has covered just one of its past five home games and one of five overall dating to last season. Louisville opened the season with a 31-7 loss to Syracuse before edging UCF and it is laying too many points in this matchup. Take the points with South Florida. 

The Louisville Cardinals saw their chances to play for a National Championship virtually eliminated at home last week with their loss to Central Florida. As a result they may be a bit flat in this game vs. a weak South Florida team. Louisville has struggled in these types of games, at least offensively. The Cards produced just 24 vs. Rutgers, 27 vs. Kentucky, and 30 vs. a one-win Temple team. South Florida simply won't score much here, as the Bulls average less than 20 ppg against lesser defenses. On the season, Louisville has given up just 11.7 points per game. The Bulls have an 8-2 mark to the UNDER in their last 10 overall, and just one of their last eight vs. a team with a winning record has topped the total. They are also 11-2 to the UNDER the past three seasons as an underdog. Play the UNDER here.

The Louisville Cardinals have become Bowl eligible with their solid win vs. UConn last week, but the South Florida Bulls need one of their last two to do the same. Last week they played a tough and physical game vs. Miami, Fla., before falling 6-3 in a defensive struggle. That became the 7th game this season the Bulls have held an opponent to 20 points or less, and Louisville certainly isn't very offensive as they have scored less than 20 points in six of their games this season. This is a big game for both teams with Louisville having a chance for the Big East Title, and S. Florida for Bowl eligibility. We have seen these Big East teams flip-flop - looking good one week and falling apart the next. The Bulls are at home here and with West Virginia looming in their next one, this may be their best chance at Bowl eligibility, so I expect a big effort from them here. Play on South Florida.