Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs Point Spread Picks

Both of these offenses have been prolific through their first two games, which makes an UNDER here look uncomfortable on paper, but the matchup underneath the numbers tells a different story. SMU's defense has been the best unit either team has faced all year, holding Florida State to 24 and UC Davis to 10, and it walks into a Louisville offensive line that's down to the studs. Louisville's own injury report lists eight players out for this game, the majority of them along the offensive line, the same group that has to protect quarterback Lincoln Kienholz and open holes for a rushing attack that's averaged over 200 yards a game so far. That's not a unit built to hold up against the toughest defensive front it's seen all season. SMU is 2-0 with a plus turnover margin of its own, and a defense playing at that level against a compromised opposing line is exactly the kind of matchup that slows a total down regardless of how either offense has looked so far. Side with the UNDER.

The Louisville Cardinals lost for the first time last week against Notre Dame 31-24. Louisville is now 3-1 on the season, but they have played well under the line in their four games. SMU meanwhile is off a 42-16 dismanting of Florida St. SMU has been one of the better road teams in NCAAF as the Mustangs are 6-0 in their last six on the road. SMU has also delivered a 66-24 win over TCU on the season. The Mustangs can score as they have proven all season, and they have also forced seven turnovers in their last two games. Many are going to be betting on a Louisville bounceback this week at home, but history is not part of that thinking. A team that opened their season at 3-0 and lost in game 4 failed to cover 55% of the time, and that data set has over 300 games played in it. SMU's dynamic offense and ability to turn their opponents over, gives them a good look as a dog in this contest. Make the play on SMU.