Louisville Cardinals vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Point Spread Picks

MUSIC CITY BOWL - We will have excellent weather in Nashville for the Music City Bowl. Mississippi State has a terrific offense behind RB Kylin Hill (5.7 yards per carry), who led the SEC in rushing with 1,347 yards. The offense scored 38, 23, 30 and 54 points in four of its five games away from home, but the defense is allowing 31.2 points the last eight games. Louisville has plenty of offensive punch, as well, averaging 32.7 points per game behind RB Javian Hawkins (5.9 yards per carry, 1,420 yards). But the defense is soft, allowing an average of 38.8 points the last nine contests! Louisville is on a 7-3 run OVER the total, plus 15-4 OVER on the road after two or more consecutive games going OVER. Mississippi State won 31-27 when these teams clashed in a bowl in 2017 and this shapes up as another offensive show. Take the OVER.

TAXSLAYER BOWL - This matchup brings together a pair of 8-4 teams. It has to be a disappointing season for Louisville. The Cardinals returned Heisman Trophy winner, Lamar jackson, and thought they could make a run toward a National Championship, but it was the usually reliable defense that set the team back this season. The offese eroded some, but the defense allowed a staggering 27 points per game on the season. Mississippi State lost their QB, but Louisville has little film on freshman replacement, Keytaon Thompson, so with a poor defense that could become a problem. The Miss St. defense is very good, allowing just 20 ppg to an SEC schedule. Bowl teams with poor defenses often get punished in Bowl games. A team allowing 27 points or more are just 44-64 in their Bowl game as a favorite, and overall to any line they win just 44.5% of the time. Make the play on Miss St. on the moneyline.