Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Texas A&M Aggies Point Spread Picks

These teams were supposed to meet to open the season but that game was postponed until now. Louisiana Tech is surprisingly unbeaten at 5-0. The Aggies lost QB in Ryan Tannehill to the NFL, but have a promising freshman in Johny Manziel who has been terrific. But as freshman usually do, he made a lot of bad decisions vs. Ole Miss last week that almost cost them in a come-from-behind 3-point win. He could be playing with a bit less confidence in this one. While LA Tech hasn't had a signature win, it isn't because they aren't capable. This is an offensive powerhouse that has scored 52 or more points in four of their five games. They have a top-level QB in Colby Cameron who has been perfect on the season, passing for 1,447 yards at 8.1 yards per attempt, with 13 TDs and 0 INTs. The running game has four ball carriers each averaging over 5 yards per carry. This game could come down to mistakes, and Cameron has been flawless, while Manziel showed some youth in his last outing and it could be the difference maker. Over the past three seasons, the Aggies are just 1-8 ATS on the road vs. winning teams. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are a perfect 9-0 ATS over the past two seasons as an underdog. They are also 7-0 ATS over that span following an ATS win. A&M has LSU at home next, while Tech is trying to make a statement here and get a signature win. Play on Louisiana Tech.

Am I nuts? Yes it's going out on a limb to take a double-digit dog straight up. But, I smell a possible upset brewing in College Station. Granted, the odds say this pick won't come through. But, at these odds, we only need to hit this kind of pick one out of seven times to make it profitable. I think there's quite a bit of value on this play. Offense won't be the problem at A&M. It is defense and their No. 106 ranking from a year ago needs to step-up for the Aggies to turn the corner. Working in a lot of young players into a new 3-4 scheme is going to cost them early. Just remember their home opener two years ago vs. Arkansas State. They were a 19-point favorite and lost the game outright. They needed a miracle as a 27-point favorite vs. Army to squeeze out a 4-point win as well. They also almost got picked off by Fresno State as a 17.5 point favorite. They have a 3-point win at home vs. Baylor as a 23-point favorite, so this certainly isn't impossible. Sonny Dykes takes over at LA Tech and he is known for big offenses as well as having the weapons to pull it off. The offense returns eight, including the QB and the entire OL. That's from a team a year ago that went on the road and lost to Boise State by just 10 and LSU by 8 - two of the toughest venues in the country. Under Mike Sherman, this A&M team owns a losing record overall and a losing record in non-conference games. I am taking a flyer on Louisiana Tech to pull of the major upset.