Liberty University Flames vs Mid Tenn State Blue Raiders Point Spread Picks

Liberty is 6-0 and 5-1 ATS, averaging 35.3 points per game after defeating Jacksonville State 31-13 last Tuesday while racking up 422 total yards, including 245 on the ground. Kaidon Salter threw for 177 yards and two TDs and Quinton Cooley rushed for 163 yards on 5.8 yards per carry for the Flames, who have not missed a beat in coach Jamey Chadwell's first season. Middle Tennessee did get a 31-23 win over Louisiana Tech after losing its three previous games, but the Blue Raiders are just 2-5 ATS this season and they are 0-4 ATS their past four games following a win. The last meeting was in 2021 and Liberty won 41-13 and the Flames are 5-0 ATS as double-digit home favorites off a straight-up win. Middle Tennessee is #72 in the country, allowing 389.0 yards per game, and #106 in rush defense yielding 121.7 yards. That doesn't bode well as the Flames are #2 with 253.5 rushing yards per game. Lay the points with Liberty.

Middle Tennessee State has a losing record and is winless on the road. They're surrendering 33 points per game over the last four contests and are 8-20 ATS on the road against teams that score 31+ points per game. Liberty does everything well, off a 36-12 rout at Alabama-Birmingham as an underdog. QB Malik Willis (11 TDs, 0 INTs) is a handful, leading the team in rushing with 418 yards and 6.3 yards per carry. Liberty is on a 20-8 spread run, going 12-2 ATS in non-conference tilts. Liberty was a 27-point favorite in its last home game and covered in a 45-17 rout of Old Dominion. Liberty is also 11-3 ATS against pass defenses that allow 58% completions or more, so back the home team. Play Liberty.