Liberty University Flames vs Massachusetts Minutemen Point Spread Picks

Liberty University has winning records both home and away. QB Kaidon Salter (13 TDs, 3 INTs) leads a balanced offense along with RB Quinton Cooley (851 yards, 6.0 ypc). They're 28th in the country in total yards (430.6 per game) and 21st on third down (44.94%). They come off of a 37-17 victory at Middle Tennessee State. By contrast, Massachusetts is 115th in total yards (314.3 per game) on offense and 131st in points (14.7 per game). Over the last four weeks, they had to play two SEC schools, getting beaten up by Missouri (45-3) and Mississippi State (45-20). UMass is on a 7-12-1 ATS run. Play Liberty. 

Massachusetts has stunned the college football world by winning two in a row, albeit against Army and Merrimack, but now the Minutemen have some real competition as Liberty averages 39 points per game, which is #10 in the country, and the Flames allow only 20.7. Liberty is undefeated with an 8-2 ATS mark following its 38-10 rout of Old Dominion on Saturday when it outgained the Monarchs 455-280. Kaidon Salter threw for 225 yards and three TDs and finished with a 124.1 QB rating for the game. CJ Daniels caught seven passes for 137 yards for the Flames. Massachusetts has lost the past four meetings by an average of 37.5 points. The past two meetings easily have gone OVER and Liberty has soared OVER three of its past four this season. UMass is 7-3 OVER this year and 4-0 OVER as an underdog of at least 10.5 points. The Minutemen are 1-10 ATS following a win and 1-8 ATS after allowing fewer than 100 yards rushing their previous game. Play Liberty and the OVER.

Massachusetts has been better since freshman QB Brady Olson took over the offense, including a 27-13 victory over Connecticut two games ago as a +3 dog. UMass is 7-3 ATS following a defeat. Liberty is a huge favorite, but it has injuries to both of its quarterbacks. QB Malik Willis has been sacked 28 times, including 13 in the last three games, and missed half of last week's game with a foot injury. Backup QB Johnathan Bennett played in Willis' absence but he hurt his hand. In practice this week, most of the fingers on his right throwing hand were heavily taped. True freshmen QBs Kaidon Salter and Nate Hampton are available, but they have never played in a college game. Also, the Liberty defense is off its worst two games, a 35-26 win over North Texas as a 21-point favorite and a 31-28 loss to UL-Monroe as 33-point chalk. North Texas ran for 242 yards on them and rolled up 454 total yards. Play Massachusetts.

After two rough scheduling games to open the season on the road, Massachusetts played better last week in a 24-2 loss to Florida Atlantic as a +34 dog. UMass was down 7-0 at the half and held Florida Atlantic to 3.2 yards per rush for the game. UMass has covered four of five overall and is 4-0 ATS after a loss. Liberty is getting national attention and is in a look-ahead spot, with a showdown against No. 20 Coastal Carolina on deck, the regular-season finale. It's been a long season for them (nine games), while UMass is playing only its fourth contest. Play Massachusetts.