Kentucky Wildcats vs Toledo Rockets Point Spread Picks

Toledo doesn't run the football very well, averaging 3.5 yards per carry in 2024. They do have a good, mobile returning QB in Tucker Gleason, who ran for 364 yards. The defense is good after ranking 55th in the nation in total yards allowed and 48th in points (24.3 per game). The secondary is excellent, anchored by CBs Avery Smith and Nasir Bowers. They won at Mississippi State of the SEC last year, allowing 17 points and 66 rushing yards (2.4 yards per carry). Toledo is on a 7-4 run UNDER the total on the road. Kentucky is coming off a 4-8 campaign and has a lot of new looks (50 newcomers on the roster). Kentucky's offense was awful, ranking 114th nationally in total yards, 119th on third down (33.59%), and 124th in points (18.1 per game). They have a new quarterback in Zach Calzada and lost top wide receivers Dane Key (to Nebraska) and Barion Brown (to LSU). Kentucky is on a 7-5 run UNDER the total. Take Toledo/Kentucky UNDER the total. 

This is a tough opener for the Toledo offense, heading to the SEC to face Kentucky. The offensive line dealt with issues in pass protection and for 2019 the top three starting receivers are gone, a trio that caught 27 of the team's 32 touchdown passes. They do have a solid ground attack and will go to that in the opener, which chews up yards and the clock. Toledo is on a 38-22 run UNDER the total on the road, plus 22-10 UNDER on natural grass. Kentucky made a bowl last season but is retooling, losing all-time leading rusher Benny Snell and 12 other starters. QB Terry Wilson (11 TDs, 8 INTs in 2019) is back but ranked #14 in the SEC in passing yards per game (145 per contest), while his wide receiver corps lacks consistent playmakers. And the offensive line lost three starters, including All-American Bunchy Stallings. The 2019 defense ranked sixth nationally in points allowed per game (16.8) and returns most of its key contributors. All of which means look for more defense than offense. Play this one to go UNDER.