Kent State Golden Flashes vs Toledo Rockets Point Spread Picks

Twice already this season, Toledo has lost straight-up as a double-digit favorite. It happened against Western Michigan, and it occurred again last Saturday when the Rockets surrendered 28 unanswered points and turned the ball over four times in a 28-23 road loss to Bowling Green. Toledo coach Jason Candle can't be trusted as big chalk, and with an emphasis on taking care of the football, that should extend drives and eliminate short fields. The disappointing Rockets are ninth in the  MAC standings with a 1-2 league mark and a 3-3 overall record. Kent State has its confidence up after earning its first Mid-American Conference win in three years last week by dominating Massachusetts, 42-0. The Golden Flashes are 2-4, but three of those losses came against Oklahoma, Florida State, and Texas Tech. Their other defeat was to Buffalo by three points as 24-point underdogs. Kent State is 4-2 ATS, and seven of its past 12 games have stayed UNDER the total. Dru DeShields has started the last four games for Kent State and has completed 58 percent of his passes for 790 yards, nine touchdowns, and one interception. The Golden Flashes also have a dangerous return man, Da’Realyst Clark. He ranks second in the nation with 289 kickoff return yards and two touchdowns. Take the generous points with Kent State, and play this game to stay UNDER the total. 

Kent State looks to avenge a 56-34 loss to Toledo in the last meeting and the Rockets come off a 37-34 overtime win against Eastern Michigan after losing to Bowling Green and Ball State. Toledo was outscored 15-0 in the fourth quarter against the Eagles before pulling it out in the extra period. As usual, the Rockets did most of their damage on the ground with 366 rushing yards on 57 carries. However, their defense is #121 in the country allowing 472.9 yards per game and 200.0 rushing yards. Toledo lost to Bowling Green as a 26.5-point favorite before being blown out at Ball State. The Golden Flashes had won two straight before losing 23-16 to Miami-Ohio and they have covered four of their last five conference games and they are 7-2 ATS when following an ATS loss dating to last season. The Rockets are also 3-12 ATS when following a bye week and 3-7 ATS after an ATS win. Take the points with Kent State.

This is a low total for a college football game as these MAC teams have good defenses. However, they have great ground attacks on offense, too. Both teams feature top rushing attacks, with Kent State second in the MAC with 175.4 yards per game and Toledo third at 175.3. Toledo quarterback Phillip Ely is a transfer from Alabama, recruited by Nick Saban and the Tide. Toledo is 10-4 OVER the total after allowing fewer than 20 points in their previous game, as well as 23-9-1 OVER at home against a team with a losing road record. RBs Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson combined for 216 rushing yards in last season's 30-20 win at Kent State. Swanson started in Hunt's place last week and rushed for 139 yards. Kent State QB Colin Reardon (six TDs, three picks) threw three interceptions in the opener at a Big 10 team and has six TDs, and no picks since. Kent State is 5-1 OVER the total after allowing more than 280 yards passing in its previous contest. Play this one to go OVER the total.