Kent State Golden Flashes vs Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State had the week off after barely beating another Mid-American Conference team as a 34-point favorite. The Nittany Lions defeated Bowling Green 34-27 while allowing 375 total yards of offense, including 254 through the air. Penn State will be looking ahead to its first Big Ten game next week against Illinois, and the Nittany Lions are just 4-5 ATS their past nine games. They went OVER by 9.5 points against the Falcons and Kent State went OVER by 8.5 points as it got demolished 71-0 by Tennessee. The Golden Flashes are 7-3 OVER their past 10 games. Kent State hoped to improve at least a little from last year's 1-11 sqaud as it returns 16 starters, but it didn't show against Tennessee. However, this is a big number for Penn State to cover in a look-ahead spot. Grab the generous points with Kent State, and bet this game OVER.

Penn State needed everything they had to overcome a very tough, and competitive Appalachian State team in their opener, a game that ended 45-38. They redeemed themselves last week vs. Pittsburgh in a blowout 51-6 win. Kent State has averaged 39 points per game thus far after averaging a woeful 12.8 ppg a season ago. I think it is an illusion created by playing a couple poor defenses, especially since they scored 38 last year against a cupcake. They have not been able to generate any offense against the strong Big-10 opponents. Looking back over the years, they have had 15 Big-10 opponents and they have an 0-14-1 SU record against them. The good news for Kent State is that between calling off the dogs, and defending their Big-10 opponents rather well, allowing only 37 ppg, this line is looking way overdone. Their limited offense will not go far in this game as they average just seven ppg against Big-10 opponents. I see about 3-4 points on both the side and the total here, so take both Kent State and the UNDER in this one.

The Penn State Nittany Lions always seem to have a very good defense, it is what they get out of their offense that typically determines how far they rise. They have a good man in Joe Moorhead that came over from Fordham that had the Ram's offense clicking. Add in the fact that the young front five for Penn State has gotten a year's experience under their belt, and could be a whole lot better this season. Saquon Barkley may benefit the most, as he eclipsed 1,000 yards on the ground with an inexperienced front line. I'm surprised Paul Haynes has survived at Kent State with just nine wins in his first three years. He is surely on the hot seat to get something done. The good news is that he has nine starters back on offense, but the bad news is that group ranked #124 last season. The defense should be strong, but this is a club that is not built to play in the Big-10, and as good as the defense was last year they lost their opener 52-3 to Illinois. The history is perhaps very telling as the Golden Flashes are 0-13 SU vs. the Big-10 and 3-10 ATS, and have scored a grand total of one TD in their last seven vs. the Big-10, and have been out-scored 278-13! That is not a typo, 278-13! Enough said, the Nittany Lions roll, so play on Penn State.

It might be the wrong time for the Golden Flashes to be heading to Beavertown. The Nittany's are going to have a chip on their shoulder after a poor showing last week vs. No. 1 Alabama. Penn State obviously didn't have what it takes to stay with Bama, but they can certainly deliver a beat-down on a team like Kent. It is going on nine years since Kent State has put together a winning season. Venturing into neighboring Big-10 country hasn't exactly been suitable for the Golden Flashes. They have lined up against the BCS bullies from the Big-10 seven times in the last nine years, and have come away 0-7. They have also been shutout in three of the seven, losing by an average margin of 37.6 points per game. They have never come within 21 points of a Big-10 team in the last decade. They are catching Penn State at a bad time, coming off a loss and I'm sure they are ready to be spitting venom and ridding themselves of the bad taste. As bad as Penn State lost last week, they did keep a powerful Alabama offense to just 24 points at home. Penn State is 84-31 ATS over the past eighteen years when they score 28+ points and I see that happening here. They are also 30-15 ATS over that span when laying 10.5 to 21 points and 17-8 ATS at home off a road loss. I'm backing Joe Pa and Penn State here.