Kent State Golden Flashes vs Massachusetts Minutemen Point Spread Picks

Massachusetts has had a tough schedule, with the last three games against Iowa, No. 20 Missouri, and Western Michigan, the latter one of only two 2-0 MAC squads. They're an underdog to a Kent State team that has lost its last four games. Kent can't run the ball effectively (averaging 2.1 yards per carry). They failed to cover in their only win, 21-17 over Merrimack, getting outgained, allowing 340 yards (164 rushing). They only won because of a 100-yard kickoff return with 5:28 remaining, ending a 21-game losing streak. Last season, Kent State was a 17-point favorite over St. Francis-PA, but lost 23-17. The wagering value is on the visitors to win the game. Play Massachusetts on the moneyline. 

The Kent State Golden Flashes have been one of the lowest scoring teams over the last couple of years, managing a paltry 18.1 points per game in their last 16 contests. This year has been the same narrative as they are averaging a woeful 4.3 yards per play. What has kept them competitive is a defense that has held opponents to the same woeful 4.3 yards per play. UMass has been able to throw the ball with some success this season, but against an average of much lesser defenses, and the Minutemen have turned the ball over at least twice in all but one game. Those 16 games of inept scoring by the Golden Flashes has them at 12-3-1 to the UNDER. UMass is now 8-3 at home to the UNDER vs. a team with a losing road record. The UNDER gets the call in this one.

I'm backing winless Kent State here because they are at home and are playing a much worse team in winless Massachusetts. Kent State has had to deal with Virginia of the ACC and Ohio State of the Big 10 - both on the road. In fact, they are home from a tough three-game road trip and showed great effort last week in a 17-14 loss at Northern Illinois as a +25.5 dog. That was a Northern Illinois team that ran its home win streak to 28 games. Kent State QB Colin Reardon was 20-of-36 for 244 yards and carried eight times for 26 yards and a touchdown. The Golden Flashes are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in October and face a UMass squad that is 0-6 and giving up 40.3 points per game - #121 in the nation. This is the fourth road game in five weeks for UMass who is giving up 557 yards (437 passing), and 47 points last week while blowing a big lead at Miami of Ohio. The Minutemen are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Play Kent State.