Kansas Jayhawks vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Point Spread Picks

The Oklahoma St. Cowboys have made a quick, steep drop, and the program looks to be heading in the wrong direction. This game looks like trouble, as the Kansas offense is throwing for over 8.0 ypa, while the Oklahoma St. pass defense allows a woeful 9.9 ypa. Kansas will have the ball in the air a lot. I would presume they will go for some big plays with success. When Oklahoma St. gets behind, they have no chance with a passing attack that averages 5.5 ypa. Kansas is nearly double that. This will be ugly as I look for the Jayhawks to pour it on and move within one game of bowl eligibility. Make the play on Kansas. 

Kansas won last year's meeting 37-16 and it went UNDER by 18 points and the Jayhawks allow 25.5 points per game this season compared to 23.2 for Oklahoma State, which scores only 23.4. The Cowboys have been an UNDER machine with nine UNDERS their past 10 games, including last week's 29-21 win over Kansas State which stayed UNDER by four points. Oklahoma State has gone UNDER six consecutive home games and it is #75 in the country with only 225 passing yards per game and the Jayhawks are #101 with 201.3. Kansas keeps it on the ground and averages 232.5 rushing yards per game. Oklahoma State QB Alan Bowman was only 19 of 35 for 235 yards with no TDs against Kansas State and Ollie Gordon II was the bulk of the offense with 136 yards on 21 carries. Bet the UNDER - Max Play.

Oklahoma St. was clicking with wins in six of seven games, and then went into Kansas State last week and things landed with a thud. After scoring 40-plus points in games against Texas, TCU, and Texas Tech, the Cowboys were shutout 48-0 by the Wildcats and now goes back to Kansas this week to take on the 5-3 Jayhawks. "Outcoached" and "outplayed", as HC Mike Gundy put it, only scratch the surface of that loss but for a No. 18th ranked team that was once inside the Top 10 this season, I'm looking for a rebound. Kansas has lost three in a row and although they've been tough at home, if this game was played a week ago the Cowboys would probably be laying -3. Oklahoma State is 16-4 ATS vs. Kansas in the past 20 meetings, including an 8-2 ATS mark as the visitor. The Cowboys still average 436 yards per game and road teams with an explosive offense are 53-21 ATS (72%) the past 10 years following a game where they were held to less than 3.75 yards per play. Take Oklahoma State.

College football teams off of their first loss this late in the season are often shell-shocked for a while. We saw that with BYU starting 5-0, but they haven't looked the same since getting upset by Boise State, 26-16, losing 38-24 to Baylor, and a 21-19 win over Washington State, all while failing to cover three in a row. Oklahoma State is now in the same boat coming off its first loss, 24-21, to Iowa State. It was a tough one to swallow, getting stuffed on fourth-and-2 late in the game. A year ago, the Cowboys lost their first game in late October, as well, and the next two weeks struggled in a 20-18 win over Kansas State and a 41-13 loss to Oklahoma. Oklahoma State is now a huge favorite, but it's a super-conservative offense that is ranked #70 in points per game (26.2) and #83 in the nation in yards (passing yards and yards per play). Oklahoma State was a 32-point favorite in the opener, but it squeezed by Missouri State, 23-16, along with beating Tulsa, 28-23, as a double-digit favorite. The Cowboys' two biggest wins all season have been by 11 points. Kansas isn't quitting, coming off of a 35-23 loss to Oklahoma as a +38 dog. Also, college football dogs of 21.5 to 31 points are 41-15 ATS in October after four or more straight losses. Back Kansas.

Oklahoma State is starting to get its offense going after an underwhelming win over Tulsa, and the Cowboys ran for 203 yards on 5.0 per carry in their 27-13 win over West Virginia. LD Brown finished with 103 yards on 11 carries and Chuba Hubbard added 101 yards on 4.6 yards per rush. Tylan Wallace caught six passes for 78 yards while quarterback Shane Illingworth completed 15 of 21 for 139 yards. This has not been your typical explosive offense from a Mike Gundy-coached team, but the Cowboy defense should be praised as Oklahoma State is #15 in the country in yards allowed and #8 in scoring defense after two games. Kansas is #65 while allowing 42.5 points in losses to Coastal Carolina and Baylor. The Jayhawks gave up 203 rushing yards to Baylor and that doesn't bode well this week versus the strong running game of the Cowboys. Kansas has lost its last six games (1-5 ATS) dating to last season as Les Miles is struggling to turn around the program in his second year as coach. Oklahoma State has won and covered the last five meetings, including 31-13 last season and the Cowboys are 11-4-1 ATS their last 16 games overall and 5-1-1 ATS their last seven road contests. Kansas is 2-6 ATS its last eight home games. Lay the points with Oklahoma State.