James Madison Dukes vs Marshall Thundering Herd Point Spread Picks

North Dakota State has allowed 49 points through four games, 12.25 a game, and is tied for 11th in the FBS. Air Force scored 32 of them in a 38-32 Bison win three weeks ago, and the other three opponents combined for 17. Wyoming is 132nd of 138 FBS teams at 17.75 points a game, and its best output against an FBS opponent is the 27 it put on Hawai'i last week. The Cowboys have also given the ball away eight times against five takeaways. A team that scores that rarely cannot afford to hand away possessions against a defense that has held three of four opponents to 10 or fewer. James Madison scores 44.75 points a game, tied for seventh in FBS with UCLA, and that average includes an 87-3 win over Wagner. The sturdier evidence is the defense: 49 points allowed through four games, the same 12.25 a game as North Dakota State, with road wins of 26-13 at San Diego State and 46-20 at Old Dominion. Marshall allows 32.50 a game, 124th of 138, and has given the ball away six times against three takeaways. The Thundering Herd have won three straight by a combined nine points, and each of those opponents scored at least 24. A defense that has allowed at least 24 in every game needs the other offense to stall, and James Madison has not scored fewer than 20 in any game. I had the OVER in Indiana's opener four weeks ago, and it cashed in a 52-16 win over North Texas. The Hoosiers have allowed 39 points through four games, 9.75 a game and fifth in FBS, with shutouts of Howard and Western Kentucky. Rutgers ranks 108th at 28.50 allowed per game and gave up at least 28 in all three of its losses. It scored 35 against USC and still lost by seven. Indiana averages 43.50 points per game, 11th in FBS, and no opponent has scored more than 23 on it. The 29-23 win over Northwestern last Friday was the closest of the Hoosiers' four wins, and the other three were decided by at least 36 points. Putting up -900 on the Bison, -1011 on the Dukes, or -1900 on the Hoosiers alone means a heavy price for a small return. Together, they make a three-team parlay at -351, and the ticket needs all three favorites to win outright without asking any of them to cover. I'm on the three-team parlay today.

As often happens, when a team makes the Top 25 for the first time ever or for in a long time it goes out and loses its next game. That's what happened to James Madison as it lost 45-38 as a 13-point favorite against Georgia Southern. The Dukes are double-digit favorites again and this time against Marshall, which has beaten Notre Dame. The Thundering Herd did have a bad game against UL Lafayette losing 23-13 as they couldn't get much going through the air and Cam Fancher and Henry Colombi combined for only 16 completions and 137 yards with no TDs. Khalan Laborn rushed for 120 yards with two TDs for the Herd. James Madison piled up 675 total yards and still lost to the Eagles, who had only 12 net yards rushing. Marshall has stayed UNDER five of six games this season and the Dukes are 9-4 UNDER their past 13 after totaling at least 450 yards their previous game. Marshall has allowed only 15.3 points per game its last three games and are getting way too many points in this matchup. Take Marshall and the UNDER.