Iowa Hawkeyes vs Wisconsin Badgers Point Spread Picks

A battle for first place in the Big 10 West. They're the only two teams in the Big 10 West with winning conference records. Iowa is a big underdog but has one of the best defenses in the country ranked 25th in yards allowed (324.5 per game) and 14th in points given up (16.3 per game). The Hawkeyes are 13-4 ATS after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards in the last game, plus 18-7 ATS on the road game when the total is 42 or less. They're also 25-12 ATS away from home after back-to-back games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. Wisconsin's defense is 37th in yards surrendered while QB Tanner Mordecai has 3 TDs and 3 interceptions. They were a 13-point favorite in the last game but failed to cover in a 24-13 win over Rutgers. The Badgers are on a 7-10 spread run and lost to Iowa a year ago, 24-10, getting just 227 total yards while turning it over 3 times. With Iowa 31-11 ATS against teams averaging 5.25+ yards per rush, back the visitors. Play Iowa.

You don't see very many NCAA Football games with a total set at 35 or fewer points. Then again the Iowa defense has been outstanding and one of the top units in the country. Outside of unbeaten teams in Michigan and Ohio St. Hawkeye's defense has allowed just 45 total points or 6.5 PPG. The reason why Iowa is just 5-4 is they score just 17 PPG. Wisconsin has given up some points to good offenses, but average offenses have struggled to score against them. Both these teams play at a very slow pace and run the ball a lot more than they throw it, to keep the clock moving. Games between 5-4 teams have produced an UNDER 65% of the time as well. Take this one to stay UNDER the total.

Wisconsin has won three in a row against mediocre competition, but when the Badgers had to play some of the top teams in the country in Penn State, Notre Dame, and Michigan, they lost all three while scoring an average of only 13.3 points. The Badgers come up against another tough defensive sqaud this week vs. Iowa, which is #12 in yards allowed and #4 in scoring defense. Plus, the Hawkeyes will be in a foul mood after suffering their first loss of the season, 24-7, to Purdue two weeks ago. Iowa QB Spencer Petras had a terrible day against the Boilermakers, throwing 4 interceptions after having only two his first six games, but he still is clearly a better quarterback than Graham Mertz of the Badgers, who went 5 of 8 for 52 yards and no TDs against Purdue, and he has 7 interceptions compared to 2 TDs on the season while completing only 55.9% of his passes. The Hawkeyes were in a letdown spot after a big win over Penn State the week before. Iowa won last year's meeting, 28-7, as a one-point underdog, and it's 5-0 ATS its last five road games while Wisconsin is 3-8 ATS its last 11 as a favorite. Play Iowa.