Iowa Hawkeyes vs Tennessee Volunteers Point Spread Picks

Iowa managed to win 10 games while averaging just 16.6 points per game and the Hawkeyes did it with the fifth-ranked defense in the country in total yards allowed and they were No. 4 in scoring defense yielding only 13.2 points per game. Now the Hawkeyes will be up against a first-time starter at quarterback for Tennessee in true freshman Nico Iamaleava as Joe Milton has opted out. The Volunteers also will be without their top two rushers as Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small also have decided not to play. Iowa has not much offense to speak of, but they get a break in this matchup as Tennessee will be missing four defensive starters, including most of its secondary. The Hawkeyes are 5-0 ATS their past five games as underdogs of 3.5-10.0 points and 4-0-1 ATS their past five bowl games, including last year's 21-0 win over Kentucky in the Music City Bowl. Tennessee lost two of its last three games (0-3 ATS) while allowing 32.7 points per game. Iowa has not had a lot of opt-outs for this game and Tennessee coach Josh Heupel has just one win as a head coach when his offense did not score at least 30 points and that seems very unlikely against the Hawkeye defense. Take Iowa ATS as my Bowl Game of the Year and on the moneyline.

The SEC is getting the money against the Big-10, so the money move is the right one. Iowa slumped down the stretch on a 1-3 run with the defense allowing 51, 26 and 37 points in the losses. In fact, they've lost four of six, a stretch that cost them a bigger Bowl game. They failed to defeat an FBS team with a record over .500 all season. While Iowa is down, a 6-6 Tennessee team is thrilled to end a three-season Bowl drought. They won three of their final four games to get here, including wins at South Carolina and Vanderbilt. This is the first Bowl game for second-year Coach Butch Jones, a fine coach who has built two other winning programs. Tennessee pushed its scoring average from 23.9 to 35.0 over their final four games with a QB change and figures to have a more cohesive running game. Freshman Jalen Hurd, who led the Volunteers with 777 rushing yards, will be back after an upper-body injury limited him to five carries in a 24-17 win at Vanderbilt on Nov. 29. He'll also be able to run behind center Mack Crowder, who missed the final two games with knee and ankle injuries. The Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on grass. Take the Volunteers.