Iowa Hawkeyes vs Ohio State Buckeyes Point Spread Picks

Iowa's offense (32 points per contest) has improved under first-year offensive coordinator Tim Lester. Their quarterbacks have four TDs and two picks while the ground game behind RB Kaleb Johnson (685 yards, 8.4 ypc) averages 6.0 yards per rush. Only a one-point loss to Iowa State has prevented a 4-0 start. The Hawkeyes were a small favorite at Minnesota in the last game and won big, 31-14. They've had two weeks to prepare after a bye and, as usual, have a rock-solid defense. The defense is 15th in the country in points (13.8 points per game allowed) while holding opponents to just 62 yards rushing per game on an average of 2.4 yards per run. Ohio State gets its first real test and had to play last week at Michigan State. They've failed to cover three of their last four at home. The visitors have the dominant defense to keep this close and have a chance to pull off the upset. Play Iowa ATS + bet an extra half-unit on the moneyline.

Iowa has been able to keep some games close with its defense but this offense is awful. The Hawkeyes are #127 in the nation in total yards (253.8 per game) and #120 in points (16.2 pg). QB Spencer Petras (2 TDs, 3 picks, 18 sacks) gets no help behind a weak offensive line as the running game averages just 2.6 yards per rush. Ohio State is loaded with NFL talent with an offense that is second in the country in total yards (543.7 yards per game) and No. 1 in scoring (48.8 ppg), while the defense is fourth in yards allowed. Ohio State is on an 18-9 spread run in Big 10 action and 17-8 ATS after a win by 17+ points. And college football teams like the Buckeyes that are favorites of 21.5 to 31 points are 44-15 ATS after scoring 37+ points in five consecutive contests. Play Ohio State.

Iowa has the reputation for great defense, which for the most part the stats say is true. The Hawkeyes rank in at 16th in yards allowed per game. That only tells part of the story however. Iowa has played against three very good offenses in games vs. Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan. In those tests, this defense has allowed an average of 412 yards per game. Those numbers would rank the defense at No. 90! In those games, the Hawkeyes were outgained by 57 yards per game. The biggest hole for Iowa is pass defense as they are allowing opposing quarterbacks to comlete over 62% of their passes. Ohio State is 9-1 ATS the past three seasons vs. teams that allow 58%+ through the air. The Buckeyes have been a pointspread cash cow as a favorite at 42-17 ATS in their last 59. They have also been a road chalk of 10 points or less 13 times and have gone 11-2 ATS. Ohio State has an even more impressive number on the resume: they are 23-5 ATS on the road vs. a team with a winning home record. They are also 40-22 ATS under Jim Tressel vs. winning opponents. I like the Buckeyes to win and cover this one.