Iowa Hawkeyes vs Ohio State Buckeyes Point Spread Picks

I had the OVER on Iowa two weeks ago against Northern Iowa, and it cashed in a 55-0 game. Iowa's games against Iowa State and Michigan finished with 29 and 39 total points, and the Hawkeyes have not allowed more than 19 in any game. Ohio State's results point the other way. Quarterback Julian Sayin has thrown for 1,206 yards in four games, 301.5 a game, and Ohio State has scored at least 42 in three of them. The fourth was a 24-23 loss at Texas, and that game still finished with 47 total points. Ohio State's four games have totaled 59, 47, 62 and 61. Michigan threw for 276 yards on Iowa last week, the most the Hawkeyes' defense has allowed through the air this season. Ohio State's defense gave up 24 to Texas and 19 to Illinois, which gained 462 yards on it last week. Iowa's offense scored 16 against Iowa State and 20 against Michigan, so the Hawkeyes can find their share. Take the OVER this afternoon.

Iowa's offense (32 points per contest) has improved under first-year offensive coordinator Tim Lester. Their quarterbacks have four TDs and two picks while the ground game behind RB Kaleb Johnson (685 yards, 8.4 ypc) averages 6.0 yards per rush. Only a one-point loss to Iowa State has prevented a 4-0 start. The Hawkeyes were a small favorite at Minnesota in the last game and won big, 31-14. They've had two weeks to prepare after a bye and, as usual, have a rock-solid defense. The defense is 15th in the country in points (13.8 points per game allowed) while holding opponents to just 62 yards rushing per game on an average of 2.4 yards per run. Ohio State gets its first real test and had to play last week at Michigan State. They've failed to cover three of their last four at home. The visitors have the dominant defense to keep this close and have a chance to pull off the upset. Play Iowa ATS + bet an extra half-unit on the moneyline.

Iowa has been able to keep some games close with its defense but this offense is awful. The Hawkeyes are #127 in the nation in total yards (253.8 per game) and #120 in points (16.2 pg). QB Spencer Petras (2 TDs, 3 picks, 18 sacks) gets no help behind a weak offensive line as the running game averages just 2.6 yards per rush. Ohio State is loaded with NFL talent with an offense that is second in the country in total yards (543.7 yards per game) and No. 1 in scoring (48.8 ppg), while the defense is fourth in yards allowed. Ohio State is on an 18-9 spread run in Big 10 action and 17-8 ATS after a win by 17+ points. And college football teams like the Buckeyes that are favorites of 21.5 to 31 points are 44-15 ATS after scoring 37+ points in five consecutive contests. Play Ohio State.