Iowa Hawkeyes vs Missouri Tigers

Iowa won four of its last five games while playing its usual great defense while topping Maryland 29-13 and Nebraska 13-10. Brendan Sullivan has recovered from a sprained ankle and will start as quarterback for the Hawkeyes, who are 5-2 ATS in their past seven December games. Missouri is 3-13 ATS in December. Sullivan played in eight games before being injured and had a 68.6 percent completion rate. His best game was against UCLA when he threw for 157 yards. Iowa will again lean on the defense to get the job done, and the Hawkeyes allowed only 17.1 points per game. They were #26 in the country regarding rushing yards allowed and #36 in pass defense. Missouri struggled against tougher competition, losing 41-10 to Texas A&M and 34-0 to Alabama. The Tigers also suffered a 34-20 defeat at South Carolina. Missouri will be without star wide receiver Luther Burden, who declared for the NFL Draft and is one of at least 10 opt-outs for the Tigers. Take Iowa.

The Missouri Tigers had BCS hopes as they opened the season 7-0. Then came a trip to Nebraska where they were held to 17 points. They may have survived for a possible BCS bid, but the next week they went out and lost to Texas Tech. This has to be a disappointing Bowl for the Tigers as they went from BCS wannabes, to playing on a pre-New year's Day Bowl vs. a team that has lost five games and won't be considered a "get up for" type opponent. Iowa faded down the stretch losing their last three games. Historically, Bowl teams coming in off of two losses are 45-27 ATS in Bowl games, while teams coming in off of three losses have gone 13-5 ATS in their Bowl game. It gives a good team a chance to salvage a feel good at the end, and these teams obviously come in motivated to win. The Tigers have had trouble tackling the number vs. a winning team where they are 5-12 ATS in their last 17. Meanwhile the Hawkeyes have played large as a dog with a 35-17-1 ATS mark in their last 53. Missouri has really struggled the past three seasons vs. good passing teams like Iowa, going 6-15 ATS vs. teams that complete 58%+ of their passes and 1-8 ATS vs. teams that haverage 8+ passing yards per attempt. Iowa is 9-1 ATS on the road the past three seasons when facing a winning team. I know Iowas is missing a couple of offensive players but I still think they get it done. Iowa gets the call.