Iowa Hawkeyes vs Michigan State Spartans Point Spread Picks

Just like last season, Iowa is better than Michigan State on both sides of the ball. Yet the Spartans upset Iowa, 32-20, at home last year. This time, the game is in Iowa, but the Spartans are still a dangerous opponent for the Hawkeyes. Michigan State opened 3-0. Since then, the Spartans have gone 0-7. However, the Spartans have covered in five of the seven defeats. They are 4-0 ATS on the road this season with point spread covers against USC (a 45-31 loss at plus 19.5 points), Nebraska (38-27 at plus 11.5), Indiana (38-13 at plus 26), and Minnesota (23-20 in overtime at plus 3.5). Once again, the oddsmaker has misjudged the Spartans, making them too big a road underdog here. Michigan State's defense is showing improvement, its quarterback, Aidan Chiles, is a decent veteran, and Nick Marsh is one of the better wide receivers in the Big Ten. Iowa is deflated mentally following consecutive close losses to USC and Oregon. The Hawkeyes' offensive line also is banged up. Take Michigan State. 

Iowa has won two of three Big Ten games with a terrific defense. New offensive coordinator Tim Lester has gotten very good results with a balanced attack behind RB Kaleb Johnson (937 yards, 7.9 ypc) and QB Cade McNamara (5 TDs, 3 INTs). The offense averages 5.8 yards per rush. Michigan State has lost two of its three Big Ten battles and is riding a three-game skid after a 31-10 loss to Oregon. QBs Aidan Chiles and Tommy Schuster have combined for five TDs and eight interceptions while the ground game averages 3.8 yards per carry. Iowa won last year's meeting, 26-16, forcing four turnovers and holds all the cards again. Play Iowa. 

The troubled Michigan State program got two wins to begin the season against Central Michigan and Richmond before running into some real competition and losing to Washington and Maryland. Now the Spartans have another opportunity to stay close as it travels to Iowa to face another conservative Kirk Ferentz-coached team that was shut out 31-0 by Penn State last week. That explains why the posted total is ridiculously low for this matchup even though the Spartans average 377.0 yards per game and Iowa yields 133.8 rushing yards. Cade McNamara was a paltry 5 of 14 for 42 yards against the Nittany Lions, who piled up 215 rushing yards and Drew Allar threw for 166 yards and four TDs with no interceptions for Penn State. All of which makes this too big a number for the Hawkeyes to cover and the defense appears to be overrated. Take Michigan State as my Game of the Month, and bet this game to go OVER.

The Iowa Hawkeyes looked impressive last week as they came within a whisker of knocking off one of the top teams in the country before losing on the game's final play 21-19. Iowa is always a dangerous team because they can play defense against almost anyone, as witnessed last week vs. a very powerful Penn State offense. After winning 11 or more games in five of six years, Michigan State took a U-turn last season and went 3-9. It was Sparty's worst season since all the way back to 1982. They followed that season with a 4-6-1 campaign. After two easy opponents, they were handed a 20-point loss against Notre Dame, so this team has a long way back to respectability. I think their recent success has this line inflated, and Iowa appears to be the better team. Make the play on Iowa in this one.