Indiana Hoosiers vs Wisconsin Badgers Point Spread Picks

The Indiana Hoosiers had a huge comeback last week in a thrilling come-from-behind win over Penn St. That could leave this team a bit flat as they take on Wisconsin at home this week. The Badgers are just 3-6 on the season, and their offense has been among the worst in the country, averaging just 13 points per game. The Badgers do have a strong defense that is allowing just 22 points per game. That defense has been good enough to limit the explosive offenses they have faced. This team has faced Alabama, Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon, and Washington and has allowed these elite teams a total of 25.4 points per game. It's possible that the way the numbers have gone, they could cover this game without scoring a point. I like Wisconsin. 

Wisconsin kept it close against Ohio State before succumbing 24-10, covering by a half-point. The Badgers still have won four of six with a 3-2-1 ATS record and take on Indiana, which has lost six consecutive games and failed to cover four straight before getting the money while losing 33-24 to Penn State on Saturday. The Hoosiers are allowing nearly 30 points per game while Wisconsin gives up just 19 and Indiana is #123 in the country scoring just 18.6 points per game. The Badgers are 8-0 as road favorites versus a less than .400 team off a loss. Braedyn Locke took over quarterback duties at Wisconsin after Tanner Mordecai was injured and he had his best game against Illinois when he threw for 240 yards and two TDs with no picks for a QB rating of 116.5. Indiana is #97 allowing 206.9 passing yards per game. This is the first meeting since 2020. Lay the points with Wisconsin as a Max Play. 

Indiana will be without quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. for the rest of the season due to a torn ACL, however his replacement Jack Tuttle completed all five of his passes and helped the Hoosiers close out a 27-11 win over Maryland. Tim Baldwin Jr. ran for 106 yards on 16 carries as the Hoosiers piled up 234 yards on the ground. Indiana still has enough offense to cover this big number and the Hoosiers are adequate defensively allowing 21.7 points per game. Wisconsin comes off a surprising loss at Northwestern 17-7 and QB Graham Mertz had a bad day completing 23 of 41 for 230 yards and a touchdown while throwing three interceptions. The Hoosiers have covered seven straight as road underdogs and they are 6-0 ATS their last six conference games. Wisconsin's only wins have been against Illinois and Michigan. Take the big points with Indiana as my CFB Game of the Month.

Indiana played no-huddle on offense under Kevin Wilson the last few years, but he's gone and the Hoosiers have a much slower pace under new coach Tom Allen. Allen previously served as the defensive coordinator at Indiana and South Florida. The philosophy is obvious, with Indiana scoring 14, 27, 20 and 9 points in four of its last five contests. The Hoosiers aren't sure whether redshirt freshman quarterback Peyton Ramsey will be able to play, while Indiana's leading rusher, RB Morgan Ellison, missed the game last week because of an injury and his status in question. The fans will be sky-high with unbeaten Wisconsin in town. The Badgers are all about running the football on offense at #16 in the nation with 245.8 yards rushing per game. Despite a soft schedule, Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook has just 13 TDs and eight picks, so the offense runs through freshman RB Jonathan Taylor (1,185 yards, 7.4 ypc). The Wisconsin defense is fifth in the nation in points (12.9 ppg) and in total yards allowed. With the Badgers 18-4 UNDER the total away off a road victory, look for an old fashioned low-scoring Big 10 battle. Play the UNDER.