Indiana Hoosiers vs Michigan State Spartans Point Spread Picks

This is a classic letdown spot for Indiana following its huge statement win over Oregon on the road. The Hoosiers were out to prove they could beat a highly-ranked team and they accomplished it, but don't be surprised if they come out flat in this game and it is asking a lot to cover a four-touchdown spread in this situation. Michigan State started 3-0, but it has lost three in a row playing tougher competition. The Spartans ran into a rejuvenated UCLA squad that had come off a huge upset win against Penn State. The visitor in this series has covered the spread the past seven meetings and Michigan State is 8-1 ATS its past nine off a straight-up favorite loss. The Spartans average 131.2 yards rushing to help control the clock and limit Indiana's possessions to stay within this huge number. Makhi Frazier has emerged as the No. 1 running back with 383 yards on 87 carries. QB Aiden Chiles has thrown for 1,019 yards and nine TDs with only three picks. Chiles is questionable with a head injury, but his backup Alessio Milivojevic actually has more passing yards the past two games than Chiles. Grab the big points with Michigan State.

Curt Cignetti is doing a phenomenal job in his first year as coach of Indiana as he has his team undefeated through eight games and they have covered the spread seven games in a row. The Hoosiers come off a 31-17 win over Washington as a 5-point favorite with their backup quarterback, Tayven Jackson, who went 11 of 19 for 124 yards and one TD with an interception. He was replacing Kurtis Rourke, who was out with a thumb injury but is expected to play this week. Justice Ellison ran for 123 yards and a TD and the Hoosiers totaled 312 yards of offense. Michigan State has lost four of five and comes off a 24-17 loss to Michigan. The Spartans average only 21 points per game and are still in a rebuilding phase with new coach Jonathan Smith. Michigan State is 2-10-1 ATS its past 13 games versus teams with greater than .750 winning percentages. The Hoosiers' have won by an average of 32.4 points this season. Take Indiana.

Michigan St. continues to have 8 players out with suspension. They have won the first two without the 8 players, but the stat sheet is puzzling. Michigan St. allowed 441 yards to Illinois but just 15 points, and 460 yards to a poor Rutgers offensive team and just 21 points. That is over 900 yards for 36 points which does not bode well for future games. Indiana opened the season at 3-0 including a win vs Illinois. They have not won since and come into this game 3-7 having lost seven straight. This may be their best chance for a win, or at least get a backdoor cover. Michigan St. hasn't been as good as the final scores indicate in their last two games, and I think this line has been stretched out because of it. I like Indiana in this one.