Indiana Hoosiers vs Iowa Hawkeyes Point Spread Picks

The Indiana Hoosiers will take on the Iowa Hawkeyes on the road to start the 2021 season. Indiana has elevated the program and last year accomplished a feat no prior Indiana team ever accomplished as they beat Michigan, Michigan State, and Penn State, in the same season. They will have the return of Michael Penix Jr. as he has recovered from a torn ACL. The defense will be anchored by All-American Micah McFadden. There are 17 starters back from a 6-2 team and expectations are running high in Bloomington. Iowa will be a strong defensive team, but QB Spencer Petras will have to improve a lot to win the big games, and this one is certainly a big one. Both teams are top 25 calibers, but I like the edge the Hoosiers have at QB in a close game. Take the points and make the play on Indiana.

The teams are meeting for the first time since 2015 when Iowa won 35-27 as a seven-point favorite. The Hawkeyes are off to a good start this season with a 4-1 record both straight up and ATS following their impressive 48-31 win at Minnesota last week. Nate Stanley finished 23-of-39 for 314 yards and four touchdowns and Ihmir Smith-Marsette led the receiving corps with 78 yards on three catches. Iowa's defense is #4 in the country in yards allowed (272.4 per game) and #5 in rushing defense (84.4 yards per game). Indiana has a 4-2 record, but just 2-4 ATS and has played a weak schedule except for Ohio State and Michigan State and the Hoosiers lost those games by an average of 18.5 points. The Buckeyes racked up 609 total yards of offense against the Hoosiers defense last week, including 455 passing yards. Indiana is 0-6 ATS its last six games after a loss and 1-6 its last seven following an ATS win. Also, the Hoosiers are 3-12-1 ATS their last 16 conference games and 3-7-1 ATS their last 11 home contests.  Meanwhile, Iowa has covered 20 of its last 29 road games and six of its last seven games overall dating to last season. The favorite has covered the number five of the last seven meetings. Play Iowa.

The Iowa Hawkeyes opened the season with an unimpressive 31-23 win vs. Northern Iowa - an FCS team. They have had lots of problems getting the offense going, but the defense has always been the lead side of the ball for this Hawkeyes team, and this season is no different. They have not allowed any of their four FBS opponents top the 20-point mark, but the problem has been the fact that the offense has not topped 24 points in the 54 games. Indiana has a powerful offense, but when they went against the top two defenses last season in Wisconsin and Ohio State, they managed just a total of 17 points in the two games, and they were held to 15 at home against Maryland. Iowa has the type of defense that Indiana has struggled against and this game isn't going to be as high scoring as the number suggests. The Hawkeyes are 6-1 to the UNDER in their last seven vs. a winning team, and all four of their games this season vs. FBS teams have failed to get to the total. Play on the UNDER.