Illinois Fighting Illini vs Washington Huskies Point Spread Picks

It is time to get real about Washington after the Huskies were thumped, 24-7, as four-point road underdogs by Michigan last Saturday. There is no Heisman Trophy talk about quarterback Desmond Williams Jr., and the Huskies are not a Top-25 team. Illinois, however, is ranked 23rd in both the AP Top 25 and USA Today/Coaches polls. The Illini have won and covered in five of their seven games. Their two losses and non-covers came to the top two teams in the nation, Ohio State and Indiana. Washington couldn't beat Ohio State either. Illinois has played a more challenging schedule than Washington and was idle last week while the Huskies suffered that deflating loss to Michigan. Among Illinois' high marks are a blowout win over Duke and an upset over USC. Luke Altmyer is one of the better quarterbacks in the Big Ten. He has a 13-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Every other starting quarterback in the Big Ten has thrown more than one interception. Altmyer can exploit a Washington secondary that ranks 89th in pass defense. The Illini are 14-5-1 (74 percent) ATS since the start of last season. Take Illinois. 

Illinois came out of the gate strong at 3-1 last season, but that was all she wrote. The Illini came up short the rest of the way to finish 1-7 in their last eight games with the lone win coming via a 4-point decision vs. Purdue. Illinois has gotten good work from Oklahoma State transfer QB Wes Lunt, but Washington is not Western Kentucky or Youngstown State, which were a pair of narrow wins for the Illini. Just like the Big-10 has given the Illini fits, so has the Big-12 where they are just 7-24 straight-up in their last 31 against them. The one consistency of this Illini team is their inconsistency, and that has tracked them to a 2-10 ATS mark in their last 12 games, and the road has been a horror show where they own a 1-10 ATS mark in their last 11. The Huskies are now 15-6 ATS in their last 21 at home, and should be prepared to bring it here. Back Washington.

Illinois lost their last nine games last year and did not break into the win column in Big-10 action all season. They have opened 2-0 this year. Their win over Illinois State was expected, but they also put together their best performance in over a year when they shocked Cincinnati 42-17 at home as an 8-point dog. The Fighting Illini scored 17 points or less in seven of their last eight games, but have become vastly improved. They have put up 42 points in each of their first two games this season. Washington made a statement of their own by taking down Boise State 38-6 in their opener. The question, however, remains - was that a huge win or is Boise State down lower than they have been in over a decade? The answer probably lies somewhere between the two. Regardless, the Illini are flying high while the Huskies could be a bit hungover from their big win. This team is, after all, just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a home blowout win by 28+ points. Illinois can keep this one close and I think they do. Take the points and play on Illinois.