Illinois Fighting Illini vs Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State had a scare last week in its 42-35 win over Indiana, so it won't take any team lightly from here on out as the Buckeyes survived Justin Fields' three interceptions to pull out the win. Fields had been nearly perfect this season and he expects to have a better performance this week although he did throw for 300 yards and two touchdowns. Illinois lost its first three games before bouncing back and beating Rutgers and Nebraska. The Fighting Illini are only #97 in the country in total yards allowed and #86 in pass defense. The Buckeyes are racking up 535.3 yards and 45.3 points per game and appear to be nearly impossible to stop offensively. The teams haven't met since 2017 when Ohio State won 52-14. The Buckeyes have covered the spread 11 of their last 16 conference games and five of their last seven road contests. Lay the points with Ohio State.

It was almost conceded that the Ohio State Buckeyes would enter the Final Four as the #1 team in the country, and repeat their National Championship win from last season. That has not been the case for the Buckeyes, at least not yet. The Buckeyes public impression is offense, but the fact is their scoring is down by eight points per game vs. last season, and surprisingly the defense has been why they are unbeaten. The Buckeye stop unit is allowing just 13.9 ppg on the season, an improvement of eight ppg over last year's squad. That means Ohio State has seen a 16 ppg drop from their total points scored in their games from last year. Illinois has had a lot of empty offensive games vs. good defensive teams, scoring 14 or less four times this season, and have only surrendered 30+ in two games. Ohio State is now 8-1 to the UNDER in their last nine after a win, matched by the Illini's 7-1 mark to the UNDER in their last eight vs. a winning team. Play the UNDER.

Ohio State continues to roll. They're on a 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS run since getting upset at home by Virginia Tech. This grouned attack is deadly, averaging 254 yards per game (#18 in the nation) behind Ezekiel Elliott (640 yards, 5.5 yards per carry) and freshman QB J.T. Barrett (21 TDs, 7 INTs), who keeps getting better. And the changes that Urban Meyer made to his defensive coaching staff in the offseason has paid big dividends with the Buckeyes ranking #25 in the nation in points allowed. The Buckeyes are 53-26-2 ATS in their last 81 conference games. Ohio State is beating teams by a 44-21 average. They will win by a much larger margin that that against this Illinois team that is winless on the road, with a bad defense that allows 34.4 points per game (#106 in the nation). The Illini is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 conference games. Ohio State rolled 60-35 a season ago with 591 total yards, including 441 rushing - and their defense is much better this season. The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings so grab the home team and play Ohio State.