Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan Wolverines Point Spread Picks

Illinois won seven of its first eight games before slipping and losing to Michigan State and Purdue, but the Fighting Illini still are outperforming preseason expectations as they did not return as many starters as most other Big Ten schools and they finished 5-7 in coach Bret Bielema's first year in 2021. The Illini do get Michigan in a lookahead spot for the Wolverines, who have a momentous meeting with Ohio State next week and they could be looking ahead a bit to that one while trying to cover this big point spread. Illinois is #2 in the country allowing only 249.7 yards per game and #3 in scoring defense (12.5 per game) and Michigan has played a relatively weak schedule. Illini quarterback Tommy Devito has thrown 15 touchdown passes and only three interceptions and has a stellar 146.2 QB rating. Michigan's QB, J.J. McCarthy, has thrown for fewer than 170 yards in four straight games and the team is becoming one-dimensional with Blake Corum doing most of the work at running back. Illinois is 6-1 ATS its past seven road games and 8-2-1 ATS versus teams with winning records. Take the points with Illinois.

Jim Harbaugh appears to have made the right adjustments defensively following a near-loss to Army before getting blown out at Wisconsin. Since then, Michigan has outscored opponents 62-3 in wins over Rutgers and Iowa. The offense still needs some improvement after scoring only 10 versus the Hawkeyes, but Iowa was held to only 261 total yards and just one net rushing yard on 39 carries. Shea Patterson wasn't spectacular, but he finished 14-of-26 for 147 yards and the Wolverines rushed for 124 yards. The Wolverines are learning a new spread offense and it's taking awhile to get it going. Nevertheless, Michigan will have no trouble with Illinois, which has lost three in a row and its only wins were against lowly Akron and Connecticut and the Fighting Illini is 1-3 ATS the last three games. Minnesota ran all over the Illini, rushing for 333 yards and outgained them 488-248. Michigan has covered its last four October games and four of its last five overall after an ATS win. Illinois is 2-6 ATS its last eight versus teams with winning records. Lay the points and play Michigan for my Max Play this weekend.

The Michigan offense was tortured by a pair of the best defenses in the country in games vs. Alabama and Notre Dame. But when playing other teams without top defenses the Wolverines have scored 46 points per game against their other three opponents. As a result, they have climbed back in to the Top 25. The Illini have held down a couple of cupcakes in Western Michigan and Charleston Southern to hide some of their defensive short-comings. Those numbers dilute the total picture, which has otherwise been grim. Illinois has allowed over 40 points per game to their other opponents, while the offense has struck for 14 or less in three of them. Needless to say, they are in trouble on both sides of the ball here. The Illini make a lot of mistakes, regardless of who is at QB and have thrown nine INTs already on the season. And, the ground game has stalled. The road has not been their friend recently at just 1-4 ATS in their last five. The Wolverines bounce-back after passing for less than 170 yards in their last game at 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight. In their last 22 games following back to back blowout losses by 17+ points, Illinois is just 5-17 ATS. All Michigan in this one, so play on them here.