Idaho Vandals vs San Diego State Aztecs Point Spread Picks

The Idaho Vandals won eight games in 2009 and six in 2010, but since they have been 5-39. This has been a struggling program for a long time, and the 39 losses they have accumulated since 2010 have been on average by 24.6 points per game. They own a 4-11-2 ATS mark in the 17 games they have been a dog of +20 or more points, and have lost those games by an average of 39.3 ppg. It's needless to say they are likely in a lot of trouble here vs. San Diego State. The Aztecs have been strong at home this season at 3-0 and have allowed just 11.3 ppg. They are also 6-1 here in their last seven with the only loss was to a great Fresno State team last year in OT. The Vandals don't get the money often, and when they do, and are off an ATS win, they are 1-9 ATS in their last 10. Lay the bundle and play on San Diego State.

Both of these teams are down statistically on both sides of the ball with ranks around the No. 100 mark, so no inherent advantage from either side there. The big difference lies in the venue. San Diego State has been put in the favorite role here and I'm not sure how they earned that right. But I will gladly exploit it. The Aztecs are far removed from the day Marshall Faulk was King of College Football. They are just 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games following a win. This is a team that has won all of two games in the last 20 they have ventured out on the road to play, and they have covered just four of them. They have only been installed as a road favorite three times in the last six years, having come up empty in all three. They have not covered a game as road chalk since 2003! Meanwhile, the Vandals have been vandalizing the books, taking their last three at home for the money - all three times as a dog. They will also have the sweet essence of revenge on their minds for a 45-17 pasting they took at San Diego State a year ago. The Aztecs are also just 8-21 ATS after allowing less than 20 in their last game, showing the inconsistency they have had over the years. I'm going with the live home dog here.