Houston Cougars vs South Florida Bulls Point Spread Picks

The Houston Cougars are not having the type of season they expected as they have started just 4-3. They are probably lucky to even be 4-3, as they could just as easily be 2-5, as they beat UTSA by 2 points, and Memphis by 1. I think the line here does not reflect that and then you bring in the 1-6 South Florida Bulls, and the line appears jacked up to me. Houston is out-gaining opponents by 7 yards per game, and after beating five opponents a year ago by more than 18 points this year they have yet to beat anyone by more than 18 points. The Bulls have played a tough schedule with games against BYU, Florida, Louisville, Cincinnati, and Tulane. Make the play on South Florida.

South Florida is undefeated in Charlie Strong's second year as coach and now faces its toughest test of the season this week at Houston. The Bulls have gone UNDER three of their last five games, and this matchup has a huge posted total even though Houston has stayed UNDER two of its last three. Last year's meeting went UNDER by two points as the Cougars came away with a 28-24 victory. Houston has also stayed UNDER 17 of its last 25 games overall and nine of its last 13 home contests. USF has gone UNDER five of its last seven conference games, and the Bulls ran the ball 37 times in its win over Connecticut while averaging 9.4 yards per carry and using a lot of the clock. Blake Barnett was 20-of-28 for 265 yards with a touchdown and was picked off twice for the Bulls against UConn, which was held to only 133 passing yards. USF allows only 25.7 points per game, and Houston gives up 29.1. The defenses of both teams appear to be underrated, and it will be a lower-scoring game than expected. Take the UNDER.

Unbeaten South Florida is a double-digit favorite again but this is a good matchup for Houston. South Florida has played an easy schedule and faces a balanced Houston offense that averages 27.3 points per contest. Houston is #33 in the nation in passing with 270.4 yards per game behind mobile QB Kyle Postma, while RBs Duke Catalon (496 yards) and Dillon Birden (333 yards) anchor the ground game. The Cougars are on a 20-7-1 ATS run on the road, plus 21-8-1 ATS after getting more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Houston has a winning road mark and the South Florida Bulls are 2-5-1 ATS at home against a team with a winning road record. South Florida was an 11-point favorite last week against Tulane and won 34-28, allowing 194 yards rushing and 221 passing. This will be a close one and Houston is 17-8-1 ATS after gaining 100 or fewer yards rushing in their previous game. Take the points and play Houston.