Fresno State Bulldogs vs Toledo Rockets Point Spread Picks

Toledo has played one game against a decent defense this season and it managed 24 points against the Miami Hurricanes with 334 total offense yards and 3.1 yards per rush and 222 passing yards. The Rockets face another good defense in this matchup with Fresno State, which has allowed only 16.0 points per game and only 294.7 yards per contest. The Bulldogs held two Power 5 teams to an average of 17.5 points in losing at Minnesota 21-14 and beating UCLA 38-14. The Minnesota game went UNDER by 15 points and the Bulldogs have gone UNDER 10 of their last 13 games overall dating to last season. Also, Fresno State has stayed UNDER four of its last five home games and eight of its last nine after allowing fewer than 20 points its previous game. Toledo is 23-11 UNDER its last 34 road games and 24-10-1 UNDER its last 35 against teams with winning records and presumably, teams with relatively good defenses. The Bulldogs held UCLA to 270 total yards and just 151 passing yards. This is an inflated posted total, so play the UNDER.

This is a very difficult spot for Fresno State. They had the big win over Rutgers and needed a win vs. Wisconsin last week to establish legitimacy. With a win in that game, and a spotless conference record, they would have sealed a BCS bid. Yes, their hopes were high. They let it all out last week vs. Wisconsin, but came up a field goal short. It would be unimaginable they come back on the road at Toledo and play with any energy at all. What complicates matters more for the Bulldogs is they have UCLA on deck, so this becomes the perfect sandwich game where they are a no show. Toledo is a very difficult place to win on the road where the Rockets stand 41-6 in their last 47 games. I will back the Rockets here expecting a disinterested Bulldogs team to find themselves in a fight.