Fresno State Bulldogs vs Northern Illinois Huskies Point Spread Picks

Northern Illinois worked hard to get to this bowl, winning three of its last four. This team lost at Notre Dame in September, 16-14, as a +28 underdog. The ground game averages 4.8 yards per carry behind RB Gavin Williams (741 yards, 5.5 ypc). QB Ethan Hampton decided to transfer to Illinois, so QB Josh Holst (411 yards) will start. Fresno State was even more ravaged by transfers, losing most of their offensive production. QB Mikey Keene (18 TDs, 11 INTs) is gone, along with two of their top three receivers.  Backup QBs Joshua Wood and Jayden Mandal have to step in. The duo has combined for no TDs, two interceptions, and just 23 passing yards. On defense, Fresno has lost three cornerbacks along with one of their better linebackers in Phoenix Jackson. Play Northern Illinois on the moneyline.

The Northern Illinois Huskies have made five Bowl appearances in the school's history. The first two turned out great as they won them both. But it's been a Bowl disaster ever since. They have played in three Bowl games over the last five years in which they were outscored 81-20 with the offense managing less than a TD per game on average. Fresno State will be making their 24th Bowl appearance and they stand at 12-11. This will be their 11th Bowl since 1999. Northern Illinois piled up 195 points in the three games proceeding their MAC Championship game, but were limited to 21 at home and lost the Conference title to Miami Ohio. This will be a tough motivational spot for a team that was on a serious roll, but were derailed in their Championship game. Fresno State closed the season with a big straight up win as a TD underdog vs. the Big-10's Illinois and will be the confident inspired team in this one. Coach Hill has covered over 60% of his games vs. non-conference opponents since he has been at Fresno State, spanning 59 games. Teams coming into their Bowl game having lost their last game after winning at least seven in a row prior to that are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine Bowl appearances. The Huskies are just 2-5 straight-up since last season vs. winning teams. My computer matchup favors the Huskies but I like Fresno State here.