Fresno State Bulldogs vs Minnesota Golden Gophers Point Spread Picks

Minnesota has a terrific coach in P.J. Fleck. The Gophers had one of the youngest teams in the nation in 2018 and still had a winning record along with a Bowl Game victory over Georgia Tech, 34-10. They topped South Dakota State in the opener and the Gophers have covered six of seven non-conference games, as well as being 14-4-3 ATS when following a spread loss. Minnesota is also 7-3 ATS against the Mountain West Conference and matches up well with a Fresno State team they beat last September, 21-14. Fresno had just 87 yards rushing (3.6 yards per carry) in that game while Minnesota ran for 132 yards and won the turnover battle. Fresno State stepped up against the bigger Pac-12 last week, losing 31-23 at USC, making this a tough situation and matchup for the home team. Play Minnesota.

Both teams scored a ton of points in their opener, but don't overlook how strong these defenses are. Fresno State had an amazing turnaround last season under Coach Jeff Tedford anchored by a powerhouse defense that was #16 in the nation in yards allowed, and ninth in points (17.9 points per game). For this season the entire starting back seven returns, all three starting linebackers and four starting defensive backs. Jeffrey Allison, George Helmuth and James Bailey are the best set of linebackers in the Mountain West and they looked it last week, holding Idaho to 13 points and just 3.2 yards per rush. The defense also had five interceptions! Fresno State is 19-6-1 UNDER the total when following a victory, on a 9-2 run UNDER, including 5-1 UNDER on the road. They head to a Minnesota squad that has a lot of new pieces on offense, with a pair of freshmen QBs sharing time in Zack Annexstad and Tanner Morgan. The offensive line returns only one player who started every game last fall and they are searching for playmakers. Last season the offense was terrible, averaging 22.1 points (#108 in the nation) with the #122 ranked passing attack. At least the defense is rock solid, allowing 22.8 ppg in 2017, while the pass defense ranked #11 and looks strong again. They stuffed New Mexico State last week allowing just 10 points and 38 yards rushing on 20 carries. The Golden Gophers are 9-4 UNDER the total in non-conference games and this total is too high. Play the UNDER.