Florida State Seminoles vs Miami Florida Hurricanes Point Spread Picks

Georgia’s closest game this season was last Saturday’s 20-17 win at Alabama, and those 20 points were its fewest of the year. Auburn has scored 21 and 14 in its last two games, against Vanderbilt and at Tennessee, and meets Georgia this afternoon with a scoring offense that is 86th in FBS at 26.8 points per game. Georgia scores 46.2 per game, second in FBS, and allows 14, tenth. It has held all six opponents to 20 points or fewer. Both teams have beaten Vanderbilt: Georgia 38-14, Auburn 21-15. Auburn’s defense is tied for 47th at 21.4 points allowed per game, and Florida scored 44 on it while Tennessee scored 24. Oregon State has won four straight by 35, 26, 30, and 52 points. Washington State is 1-5, and its only win came against FCS Duquesne. Washington State scored 6 against Fresno State and 16 at Utah State in its last two games, and it has been held to 16 or fewer points in four of its six. Its offense is 124th of 138 FBS teams at 18.5 points per game. Oregon State scores 41.8, tied for 10th, and allowed 17, 7, 26, and 14 in those four wins. Oregon State’s two losses came in its first two games, 33-20 at Houston and 35-24 against Texas Tech. This afternoon, Oregon State is live in a situation for home favorites with a good offense coming off a great offensive performance, 66 points against San Diego State. Miami allows 9.8 points per game, the fewest in FBS, and scores 49.6, the most. It has scored at least 33 points in each of its five games, and its last game was a 41-13 win at Clemson two weeks ago. Florida State lost 44-20 at Louisville last Friday, its third loss this season, by 3, 14 and 24 points, and its defense allows 25.3 per game, 84th in FBS. Florida State scores 31 per game, tied for 62nd, and put up 38 on Virginia. Miami has held its five opponents to 6, 7, 20, 3 and 13 points, and Florida State meets that defense tonight. Georgia at -1011, Oregon State at -809, and Miami at -1329 each cost too much to lay alone. Together they pay out at -305 and ask each team only to win. I’m on the three-team parlay today.

This is a long standing rivalry in the state of Florida. Miami, Fla. heads to Tallahassee to take on Florida St. Statistically these teams are not a great distance apart. The one place I see hidden value on Miami is how they take command of games. The Hurricanes are getting off 13 more plays a game than their opponent, and when you have an edge of 13 plays even at just seven yards per play that is over 100 yards a game. Whatever Florida St. gained by beating Alabama 31-17, they lost it their last time out vs, Virgina in a 46-38 loss. Mimai has an iron clad defense, and allowed just 141 total yards to Florida last game. I think Miami is at least a TD better on the road, and I will make the play on Miami.

Combine the Fighting Irish (-485) and the Dukes (-2400) and the Ducks (-1600) and the Hurricanes (-1350) into a 4-team parlay at -230 odds.

Miami-Florida was embarrassed by Florida State last year, 45-3. Unlike last season, Miami-Florida is in line for a bowl at 6-3. They have experience and balance on offense behind junior QB Tyler Van Dyke (16 TDs, 11 INTs) and a ground attack that averages 5.2 yards per carry. The defense is 26th in the nation in total yards allowed, 31st on third down (34.48%), and 31st in points given up (21.6 per game). Miami has been an underdog three times this season and won twice, upsetting Texas A&M (48-33) and Clemson (28-20). Florida State has all kinds of injuries to their wide receiver corp with four questionable to play, including the top two receivers Johnny Wilson (415 yards) and Keon Coleman (538 yards). In this huge ACC in-state rivalry, play Miami-Florida on the moneyline.