Florida Intl Golden Panthers vs Toledo Rockets Point Spread Picks

BAHAMAS BOWL - Butch Davis followed up an 8-5 season in his return to coaching in 2017 with an 8-4 record this regular season and a sparkling 9-3 ATS record. The Golden Panthers are led by quarterback James Morgan, who completed 65.3 percent of his passes for 2,727 yards and 26 touchdowns with only seven interceptions. Napoleon Maxwell is the leading rusher with 670 yards and D'Vonte Price finished with 539 yards on 6.1 yards per carry. FIU averages 417.9 yards and 34.6 points per game, but it's the defense that has a big edge in this matchup as the Panthers are #58 in the country in yards allowed (386.7 per game) while allowing 24.7 points. Toledo is #94 in yards allowed (430.1 per game) while giving up an average of 30.2 points. The Rockets have lost Bowl games the last two years and both were against Appalachian State, including by a 34-0 score last year. Florida International has covered four of its last five games and five of its last seven non-conference games dating to last season. Also, the Panthers are 8-3 ATS their last 11 after a loss. Toledo is 1-5-1 ATS its last seven December games and 2-5 ATS its last seven non-conference games and 2-5 ATS its last seven versus teams with winning records. Grab the points with Florida International.

Toledo rolled a very bad Colorado team two weeks ago 54-38. Outside of that, they have really struggled. They gave up 52 points to Purdue in their opener and lost 38-0 to Ohio State last week. Granted, Florida International is not a Big Ten team, but Toledo just isn't worthy of the road favorite role. The Golden Panthers are on the uptick. They returned 10 of 11 offensive starters from last year including their QB. They went 1-11 in 2007 and 5-7 last season. This year they are 0-2 to start, but they had to play Alabama on the road in their opener and again head to the road last week vs. Rutgers. They gave Rutgers a fight, losing by 8 points as a 16 point underdog. They struggled on offense in both of those first two games but they now face a team giving up over 500 yards and 42 points per game. I like the home dog here.