Florida Intl Golden Panthers vs North Texas Mean Green Point Spread Picks

The program at FIU has never been strong, but since the start of the 2020 season, they are just 6-25. This is a team with few returning starters and no offense. They almost lost to Maine in their opener as they won 14-12. Since the start of the 2020 season, this team has averaged fewer than 20 points per game, and this season may be worse than any of those. North Texas was taken apart by Cal last week. They turned the ball over three times, and the offense managed just 225 total yards. I don't think either of these teams has any kind of offense that can push this game into the 50s. I look for this one to play UNDER the total.

North Texas has covered five in a row after demolishing Western Kentucky 40-13 as a 10-point underdog in the Mean Green's most complete performance of the season. Austin Aune finished 20 of 28 for 322 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions and a QB rating of 149.4. The Mean Green piled up 541 total yards of offense, including 196 on the ground and the defense held the Hilltoppers scoreless in the second half and North Texas went UNDER for the second straight time. Florida International had stayed UNDER four in a row before beating Louisiana Tech 42-34 in two overtimes on Friday and this one would have stayed UNDER if not for the extra periods. The Panthers managed only 57 rushing yards on 26 carries and scored only six points in the second half before going into OT. North Texas destroyed FIU 49-7 in 2021 and it still went UNDER by a half-point. The Panthers are 0-6 ATS their past six November games and 2-6 ATS their past eight road games. The Mean Green have covered 11 of their past 12 conference games and they are 20-9 UNDER overall following a victory. Take North Texas and the UNDER.

Florida International is 1-9 straight up and coach Butch Davis will not be back next season as he has disagreements with the athletic department on why the program is failing. The Panthers are just 3-7 ATS and have lost nine in a row, including Middle Tennessee's 50-10 rout on Saturday. FIU has scored an average of just 13.2 points its past four games and it is allowing 39.0 points per game this season. North Texas has won three in a row and is turning its season around after six straight losses following a 20-17 victory over UTEP. Austin Aune threw for 240 yards with a TD and an interception for the Mean Green and Roderic Burns caught five passes for 93 yards. North Texas has covered four games in a row and six of its last seven. Florida International is 3-14 ATS its past 17 conference games and 2-11 ATS overall following a loss. Take North Texas.

The Mean Green had an ugly record a year ago at 3-9, but despite that, they were a lot more competitive than that record showed. Dan McCarney takes over and a new system usually means the offense lags behind at the onset of the season. The Mean Green lost close to 40 starts due to injury a year ago and should be much better. They were only outgained by 26 yards per game in conference play last season. FIU fumbled away a chance for the outright Sun Belt Championship a year ago, but their Bowl win gave the Golden Panthers their first winning season ever at 7-6. They return 15 starters from a team that was the best from the line of scrimmage in Sun Belt play. North Texas will have a new system, and as a road dog they have played five straight UNDERs. FIU is always tough defensively at home with just one of their last eight at home topping the total. In their last nine games as an underdog, North Texas is 7-2 to the UNDER. In their last 11 as a favorite, Florida International is 8-2-1 to the UNDER. Play the UNDER in this one.