Florida Intl Golden Panthers vs Massachusetts Minutemen Point Spread Picks

UMass came into this season knowing that they were going to struggle as they entered with the least experienced team in the country. UMass beat one of the worst teams in the country at home last week, and they needed a +2 turnover margin for the eight-point win. UMass is allowing 47.2 points per game on the season. Butch Davis has elevated the program at FIU and simply has much better athletes than UMass at this point. The UMass defense is allowing a staggering 7.7 yards per play on the season vs. one of the softest schedules in the country. FIU can throw the ball, and against a secondary allowing 10.1 yards per pass attempt, they can name their score here. Play on FIU.

UMass comes into their game against Florida International at just 1-2 on the season. They opened with a win at home, but now will travel to FIU for their third straight road game, and perhaps their best shot at a win. FIU has been vulnerable in the air, and UMass has a very good QB and some skill players capable of doing damage here, against a pretty weak secondary. Both of these teams have turned the ball over early, but UMass has been able to make them up by creating five opponent turnovers, while FIU has but one opponent turnover on the season. FIU has a long history of poor performances after a game that played UNDER the total where they are 24-45 ATS since 1992. Road dogs that allowed 475+ yards in two or more consecutive games are 105-56 ATS. Back UMass.

It has been a tough go for Massachesetts since jumping into the FBS frey with a woeful 8-57 record since joining. They are making progress on the defensive side of the ball, as we saw against Florida, going down to the Swamp and limiting the Gators to 24 points. They have allowed 34.4 points per game since joining the FBS, but over their last seven games, they have allowed a rather stingy 21.4 points per game. And no team has topped 26 on them. The offense remains sluggish, averaging just 8 points per game in the FBS, and a pair of 7s so far this year is taking away from that total, not adding. FIU has struggled offensively so far this season at 13.5 points per game. These teams stack up as being pretty close, but neither poses much of an offensive threat, and Massachusetts has dug in defensively this season while the offense has continued to sputter. Make the play on the UNDER.

UMass is still trying to find some legs on the FBS level, but they are still well short of talent and depth. UMass owns a 5-51 SU record in their last 56 games. They gave a flat Notre Dame team a game last week for a bit, but in the end they were blown out 62-27. They have now allowed 135 points through three games, at 45 points per game. Florida International is 2-2 to a pretty tough early schedule, with the highlight being a win on the road at Central Florida. The Golden Panthers could be a potential Bowl team, and starting 3-2 would be a great start towards that goal. Add in the fact they're getting points from a team that has just five straight-up wins in their last 56 games and you get another bad omen for UMass. The UMass defense has been a liability, and after allowing more than 450 yards they are 2-8 ATS. The Panthers have had no problem cashing in vs. losing teams at 5-1 ATS in their last six. Take the points on Florida International.