Florida Gators vs UAB Blazers Point Spread Picks

This is a non-conference game and it's hard to believe the directions these teams have gone this season. Alabama-Birmingham has won six out of the last eight contests (7-1 ATS run) and is bowl bound. They have a balanced offense behind QB A.J. Erdely (13 TDs, 3 INTs) and a ground attack that averages 209.8 yards rushing, 32 points per game. They have been a beast in the role of underdog, scoring 43 points in a cover at North Texas as a +10 dog, beating LA Tech (23-22) as a +9 dog, upsetting Middle Tennessee (25-23) as a +4.5 dog, winning at Southern Miss (30-12) as a +11 dog and last week they won at Texas-San Antonio as a +7 dog. UAB's defense gave up some big numbers early in the season, but over their last six games, no team has topped 25 points and the Blazers are averaging just 20 ppg allowed over that span. While UAB is up, the Florida Gators are way down, losing five in a row. This offense has been bad and getting worse, averaging just 15 points per game over their last five games. Coach Jm McElwain was shown the door and Randy Shannon has had to step in. There are changes on offense for this week, as starting center T.J. McCoy will miss the remainder of the season due to injury and QB Feleipe Franks (5 TDs, 5 INTs) will start after Malik Zaire suffered an injury at South Carolina last week. Florida ranks #116 in the nation in points (20.6 ppg), #102 in passing yards, #114 in total yards. The Gators are on a 4-10-1 ATS run at home, so back the overachieving dog again. Play Alabama-Birmingham and the UNDER in this one.

Wil Muschamp was considered the heir apparent at head coach of Texas, but he saw an opportunity at Florida and arrives into a good situation. The Gators are always a strong defensive unit, and as Texas defensive coordinator, Muschamp always had a top defensive team. The Gators struggled on offense last year, but one of the first moves Muschamp made was to bring in Charlie Weiss and his three Super Bowl rings to run the offense. Weiss will go with more of a pro-style set which should aid the maturation of QB John Brantley who is surrounded by speed and weapons. UAB coach Neil Callaway is just 15-33 at UAB, and this becomes a pivotal year for his future in the program. The concern here is a decent offense, but one that will be over-matched by the depth and speed of the Gators that will wear them down. Another concern is a defense that allowed an average of 31.6 points per game a year ago, mostly vs. mid-level BCS opponents. The Gators will be defending a 22-7 ATS mark against out-of-conference opponents in their last 29, so I like Florida in a rout here.