Florida Gators vs Mississippi Rebels Point Spread Picks

Ole Miss hasn't left Oxford yet this season, with its 3-0 start built entirely at home, and this is the Rebels' first true road test of the year against a Florida team that's already gone into a hostile SEC environment and won a shootout at Auburn. Both offenses have been excellent, but each defense has also made the plays that mattered when it counted: Ole Miss cornerback Jaylon Braxton came up with a red-zone interception to seal last week's win over LSU, and Florida linebacker Myles Graham has already piled up 20 tackles through three games. Two offenses averaging a combined 92 points a game can still turn into a lower-scoring afternoon when the game tightens up in the fourth quarter, and each side starts making the one or two plays that decide it, rather than trading scores from start to finish in front of a road crowd this loud. Go with the UNDER this afternoon.

Florida won last year's meeting 24-17, and it cost the Rebels a spot in the College Football Playoff. Now the Gators need to win their last three games to gain bowl eligibility. That is enough incentive for interim coach Billy Gonzalez as he tries to salvage something from a disappointing year that cost former HC Billy Napier his job. They'll need better play from QB DJ Lagway, who is expected to start, after being relieved in last week's loss to Kentucky. Lagway has thrown for 1,762 yards and 11 TDs, but with 12 interceptions. Florida is 4-0 ATS in its past four games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in its previous game and 6-1 ATS after yielding fewer than 170 yards passing. Mississippi has played a relatively weak schedule, especially for an SEC school, and the Rebels are 0-6-1 ATS in Week 12. They routed The Citadel as expected, 49-0, and Ole Miss is 0-5 ATS in its past five games after allowing fewer than 275 total yards in its previous game. Take the points with Florida. 

Mississippi's huge 28-10 win over Georgia two weeks ago propelled the Rebels into contention for the College Football Playoff and they have had extra time to prepare for this matchup with Florida. Ole Miss has won three in a row and it is averaging 40.7 points per game while allowing only 12.9. The Rebels held the Bulldogs to just 59 rushing yards on 33 carries and QB Jaxson Dart threw for 199 yards and ran for 50 more on eight carries. Mississippi is 5-2 ATS the past seven meetings and 8-3 ATS its past 11 games overall. Florida has lost eight of its past nine November games although the Gators do come off a 27-16 victory over LSU after losing three of their previous four. DJ Lagway was 13 of 26 for 226 yards and a TD against the Tigers and Elijhah Badger caught six passes for 131 yards. Ole Miss holds a huge edge on the defensive side as Florida yields 400.4 yards per game. Take Mississippi.